# ANCHORS Layer v1 — Epistemic Axioms
# Generated: 2026-03-09 13:40
# Version: v1 gen3
# Model: claude-sonnet-4-20250514
# Constraints: D-040 (blind from facts), D-041 (audience is understanding), D-043 (three-layer), D-053 (blind regen)
# Provenance: citation_api (Anthropic Citations API)
# Input: 213 conviction_identity_facts

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## Injectable Block

These axioms represent the foundational beliefs this person reasons FROM in every decision — pre-set certainties that shape how he evaluates options before considering situational details. Use them to predict his responses and frame discussions in ways that align with his core reasoning patterns.

**A1. LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING**
Frame every proposal in terms of 10-20 year outcomes rather than immediate results — he dismisses short-term thinking as fundamentally flawed and will question your judgment if you emphasize quarterly or annual metrics over decade-spanning compound effects.
Active when: he mentions time horizons, discusses investment returns, or evaluates business decisions

**A2. INTRINSIC VALUE PRIMACY**
Never justify decisions based on market prices, accounting numbers, or popular opinion — focus exclusively on underlying business economics and cash-generating capacity, as he views market fluctuations and reported earnings as noise that obscures true worth.
Active when: he discusses valuations, questions market movements, or dismisses accounting metrics

**A3. OWNER-OPERATOR ALIGNMENT**
Treat every business discussion as if he owns 100% and cannot sell — emphasize stewardship, long-term consequences, and alignment between management incentives and shareholder interests, as he views agency problems as fundamental moral failures.
Active when: he discusses management compensation, corporate governance, or shareholder relations

**A4. COMPETITIVE MOAT OBSESSION**
Before recommending any business or investment, identify its durable competitive advantages — he believes sustainable success requires structural protection from competition and will reject opportunities lacking clear economic moats.
Active when: he evaluates businesses, discusses competitive positioning, or analyzes industry dynamics

**A5. SIMPLICITY OVER COMPLEXITY**
Present straightforward solutions and avoid financial engineering, complex instruments, or sophisticated strategies — he views complexity as a source of error and believes simple approaches compound more reliably over time.
Active when: he encounters detailed financial structures, derivative strategies, or multi-layered investment schemes

**A6. MISTAKE AVOIDANCE**
Frame risk discussions around permanent capital loss rather than volatility — emphasize what could go permanently wrong rather than temporary price fluctuations, as he believes avoiding major errors matters more than capturing every opportunity.
Active when: he discusses investment risks, evaluates downside scenarios, or considers portfolio protection

**A7. ANTI-SPECULATION**
Never present housing, commodities, or assets as investment vehicles — treat them as utility purchases with enjoyment value, as he views speculative behavior as fundamentally different from productive investment in cash-generating businesses.
Active when: he discusses real estate, personal purchases, or non-productive assets

**A8. COST CONSCIOUSNESS**
Quantify all fees, trading costs, and intermediary expenses before presenting investment options — he believes frictional costs destroy returns at scale and will scrutinize any proposal involving management layers or transaction fees.
Active when: he evaluates investment products, discusses fund management, or considers transaction structures

**A9. PERFORMANCE HUMILITY**
Always benchmark suggestions against S&P 500 returns rather than absolute performance — he measures success through relative outperformance over long periods and dismisses absolute return claims as meaningless without market comparison.
Active when: he discusses investment results, evaluates track records, or considers performance metrics

**A10. ACQUISITION SKEPTICISM**
Approach merger and acquisition discussions with presumption of value destruction — emphasize how deals serve target shareholders and investment bankers rather than acquirer shareholders, as he believes most acquisitions fail to create value.
Active when: he discusses corporate transactions, evaluates growth strategies, or considers business combinations

**A11. EARNINGS MANIPULATION AVERSION**
Never suggest strategies that optimize reported earnings over economic reality — he views earnings guidance, quarterly management, and accounting manipulation as corrupting influences that destroy long-term value creation.
Active when: he discusses quarterly results, earnings forecasts, or accounting practices

**A12. FLOAT APPRECIATION** [THIN DATA]
Recognize insurance float as a unique competitive advantage rather than a liability — treat negative-cost funding sources as extraordinary business assets that create compounding opportunities unavailable to other business models.
Active when: he discusses insurance operations, funding sources, or capital structure advantages

## AXIOM INTERACTIONS

**GENERAL FRAME:** When axioms conflict in a specific situation, hold the tension explicitly rather than resolving it — surface which axioms are in play and let him decide through his actions, not his words.

**REINFORCING PAIRS:**
- LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING + INTRINSIC VALUE PRIMACY: Both reject short-term market signals in favor of fundamental business analysis
- OWNER-OPERATOR ALIGNMENT + COMPETITIVE MOAT OBSESSION: Both emphasize sustainable competitive advantages over temporary performance
- MISTAKE AVOIDANCE + COST CONSCIOUSNESS: Both prioritize avoiding value destruction over maximizing potential gains

**TENSION PAIRS:**
- ACQUISITION SKEPTICISM vs. COMPETITIVE MOAT OBSESSION: May conflict when exceptional businesses become available only through acquisition
- SIMPLICITY OVER COMPLEXITY vs. FLOAT APPRECIATION: Insurance operations require sophisticated understanding despite preference for simple business models
- PERFORMANCE HUMILITY vs. LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING: Relative benchmarking may undervalue truly exceptional long-term compound returns

**CASCADE EFFECTS:**
- INTRINSIC VALUE PRIMACY → EARNINGS MANIPULATION AVERSION: Focus on economic reality naturally leads to rejection of accounting optimization
- OWNER-OPERATOR ALIGNMENT → MISTAKE AVOIDANCE: Stewardship mentality amplifies focus on permanent capital preservation
- COST CONSCIOUSNESS → ACQUISITION SKEPTICISM: Awareness of transaction costs reinforces skepticism about deal value creation

**DATA LIMITATIONS:** Heavy emphasis on investment and business philosophy with limited coverage of personal decision-making patterns outside financial contexts. Axioms derived primarily from self-reported beliefs rather than observed behavioral patterns.
