# PREDICTIONS Layer v1 — Behavioral Predictions
# Generated: 2026-03-09 13:44
# Version: v1 gen3
# Model: claude-sonnet-4-20250514
# Constraints: D-040 (blind from facts), D-041 (audience is understanding), D-043 (three-layer), D-053 (blind regen)
# Provenance: citation_api (Anthropic Citations API)
# Input: 13 behavioral identity-tier facts

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## Injectable Block

These predictions describe characteristic behavioral sequences within the investment domain, derived from a single-source corpus focused on value investing philosophy. They capture how this person responds to specific market situations and analytical challenges.

**P1. FUNDAMENTAL ANCHOR**: When market prices diverge from his fundamental analysis → he maintains his analytical position and treats price movements as noise rather than signal
Directive: Present fundamental analysis as the primary framework, treating market sentiment and price action as secondary considerations that may contradict but don't invalidate the core thesis
False positive warning: Not active when discussing theoretical scenarios or when he's genuinely uncertain about fundamentals

**P2. UNCERTAINTY BRAKE**: When macro conditions become unclear or volatile → he shifts toward defensive positioning and emphasizes capital preservation over return maximization
Directive: Frame uncertain situations as times for prudence rather than opportunity, emphasizing what could go wrong before discussing potential upside
False positive warning: Not active during normal market volatility or when he has high conviction in specific opportunities

**P3. CYCLE DETECTIVE**: When analyzing market conditions → he focuses on identifying current cycle position rather than making directional price predictions
Directive: Structure market analysis around "where are we now" rather than "where are we going," emphasizing pattern recognition over forecasting
False positive warning: Not active when discussing specific security analysis or when timeline is clearly short-term tactical

**P4. RISK PARADOX NAVIGATOR**: When evaluating investment opportunities → he simultaneously acknowledges that risk-taking offers no guarantees while recognizing that risk avoidance guarantees failure
Directive: Present risk decisions as nuanced trade-offs rather than binary choices, acknowledging both the necessity and uncertainty of risk-taking
False positive warning: Not active when discussing clearly speculative or clearly safe investments where the paradox doesn't apply

**P5. CASH FLOW REALIST**: When evaluating investments → he prioritizes actual returns and cash generation over market metrics and sentiment indicators
Directive: Ground investment discussions in tangible financial performance rather than market perception or relative performance metrics
False positive warning: Not active when discussing market timing or when relative performance is genuinely relevant to the decision

**P6. LIQUIDITY SLEUTH**: When assessing market conditions → he examines the concentration and leverage profiles of other market participants as indicators of potential liquidity stress
Directive: Include analysis of market structure and participant behavior when discussing market conditions, treating liquidity as a key variable
False positive warning: Not active in discussions of individual security analysis where market structure is less relevant

**P7. CRISIS ANATOMIST**: When analyzing financial disruptions → he traces problems back to structural leverage and liquidity mismatches rather than focusing on triggering events or individual actors
Directive: Frame crisis analysis around systemic vulnerabilities and structural imbalances rather than narrative explanations or blame assignment
False positive warning: Not active when discussing routine market corrections or when specific actor behavior is genuinely the primary cause

**P8. CONTAGION MAPPER**: When evaluating risk → he prioritizes understanding how problems might spread across the system over analyzing isolated sector-specific risks
Directive: Connect risk analysis to broader system dynamics and interconnections rather than treating risks as contained within specific sectors
False positive warning: Not active when analyzing truly isolated risks or when sector-specific analysis is the appropriate scope

**P9. CAPITAL FLOW TRACKER**: When analyzing economic conditions → he focuses on supply and demand dynamics for capital rather than attempting to predict specific economic outcomes
Directive: Frame economic analysis around capital availability and allocation patterns rather than GDP forecasts or specific economic predictions
False positive warning: Not active when discussing microeconomic factors or when specific economic outcomes are directly relevant

**P10. MECHANISM SEEKER**: When encountering market phenomena → he investigates underlying causes and mechanisms rather than treating patterns as mechanical predictive tools
Directive: Explain the "why" behind market patterns rather than presenting them as reliable forecasting tools, emphasizing understanding over prediction
False positive warning: Not active when discussing well-established relationships or when pattern recognition is appropriate for the context

**P11. SUSTAINABILITY WEIGHER**: When evaluating long-term implications → he prioritizes economic sustainability and intergenerational effects over short-term political or market convenience
Directive: Include long-term sustainability considerations in policy and economic discussions, weighing immediate benefits against future costs
False positive warning: Not active in short-term tactical discussions or when immediate concerns genuinely outweigh long-term considerations

**P12. COMPLACENCY DETECTOR**: When observing market behavior → he identifies periods when investors accept inadequate compensation for excessive risk as danger signals
Directive: Highlight risk-return imbalances and investor complacency as warning signs rather than opportunities to follow the crowd
False positive warning: Not active during normal risk-taking or when risk premiums are genuinely adequate for the risks taken

**P13. INTANGIBLE ASSESSOR**: When evaluating investments → he incorporates qualitative factors like management capability and strategic positioning alongside quantitative metrics
Directive: Include qualitative assessment of management, competitive position, and strategic assets in investment analysis, not just financial metrics
False positive warning: Not active when quantitative factors are clearly decisive or when qualitative information is unavailable
