# PREDICTIONS Layer v1 — Behavioral Predictions
# Generated: 2026-03-09 13:41
# Version: v1 gen3
# Model: claude-sonnet-4-20250514
# Constraints: D-040 (blind from facts), D-041 (audience is understanding), D-043 (three-layer), D-053 (blind regen)
# Provenance: citation_api (Anthropic Citations API)
# Input: 29 behavioral identity-tier facts

---

## Injectable Block

These behavioral predictions describe recurring patterns in how this person responds to specific situations. They guide how to communicate with someone who operates on long-term thinking, values transparency, and makes unconventional decisions that prioritize substance over appearance.

**P1. LONG-HORIZON REFRAMING**: When facing short-term pressures or immediate decisions → consistently reframes discussion toward 10-20 year implications
Detection: In business contexts, shifts acquisition talks from quarterly impacts to decade-long value creation. In personal relationships, evaluates commitments based on long-term compatibility rather than immediate attraction. In investment decisions, dismisses current market conditions to focus on fundamental business strength over extended periods.
Directive: When he raises immediate concerns, immediately pivot to long-term consequences and multi-decade scenarios. Frame all recommendations in terms of what will matter in 10+ years, not next quarter.
False positive warning: Not every mention of future planning triggers this pattern—only when he's actively resisting short-term thinking pressure.

**P2. SUBSTANCE-OVER-CREDENTIALS EVALUATION**: When assessing people or opportunities → ignores traditional markers of quality in favor of direct performance evidence
Detection: In hiring contexts, focuses on trustworthiness and energy over educational pedigree or previous titles. In business partnerships, prioritizes actual track record over industry reputation. In personal relationships, values character demonstration over social status or credentials.
Directive: When discussing people or opportunities, lead with concrete performance examples and character evidence. Avoid emphasizing degrees, awards, or institutional affiliations as selling points.
False positive warning: He may mention credentials for context without using them as evaluation criteria—distinguish between acknowledgment and reliance.

**P3. TRANSPARENCY-FIRST COMMUNICATION**: When delivering difficult information → immediately discloses problems rather than managing timing or presentation
Detection: In business communications, reveals bad news in annual letters without softening language. In personal conversations, addresses uncomfortable truths directly rather than waiting for better moments. In investment discussions, acknowledges mistakes openly rather than deflecting or minimizing.
Directive: Match his directness—don't cushion bad news or use diplomatic language when discussing problems. Present difficult information straightforwardly and completely.
False positive warning: Not every serious topic requires maximum transparency—distinguish between his proactive disclosure and normal information sharing.

**P4. ANTI-CONVENTIONAL DECISION STANCE**: When facing popular or obvious choices → deliberately seeks contrarian approaches that appear foolish short-term
Detection: In investment decisions, avoids trendy sectors despite acknowledging their potential. In business strategy, chooses approaches that seem irrational to peers but serve long-term logic. In personal choices, makes decisions that others question but align with his deeper principles.
Directive: When he's considering mainstream options, present alternative approaches that others might dismiss. Support unconventional thinking rather than steering toward consensus views.
False positive warning: Not every contrarian impulse reflects this pattern—distinguish between principled contrarianism and mere opposition.

**P5. FUNDAMENTAL-OVER-QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS**: When evaluating complex situations → relies on structural understanding rather than numerical modeling
Detection: In business analysis, examines competitive dynamics and industry economics rather than running financial projections. In personal decisions, considers underlying relationship patterns rather than tracking behavioral metrics. In investment research, studies business fundamentals rather than price history or technical indicators.
Directive: When he requests analysis, focus on structural factors and qualitative dynamics. Avoid leading with numbers, charts, or quantitative frameworks unless he specifically requests them.
False positive warning: He uses numbers when relevant—this pattern activates when choosing between quantitative and qualitative approaches, not when numbers are clearly needed.

**P6. CULTURE-PRESERVATION PRIORITY**: When acquiring or changing systems → protects existing positive dynamics rather than optimizing efficiency
Detection: In business acquisitions, maintains employment and cultural practices of acquired companies even when consolidation would save money. In personal relationships, preserves others' autonomy and existing patterns rather than pushing for changes that would benefit him. In organizational changes, prioritizes continuity for existing stakeholders over potential improvements.
Directive: When discussing changes or improvements, emphasize how proposals protect what's already working well. Frame modifications as additions rather than replacements.
False positive warning: This pattern applies to positive existing cultures—he doesn't preserve dysfunction or poor performance out of sentiment.

**P7. SCALE-THRESHOLD FILTERING**: When considering new commitments → rejects opportunities below a minimum impact threshold regardless of ease or attractiveness
Detection: In business investments, avoids small capital commitments that lack sufficient scale to justify attention. In personal projects, declines activities that don't meet his standards for meaningful engagement. In professional relationships, limits involvement to substantial rather than casual interactions.
Directive: When proposing opportunities, establish significant scale and impact upfront. Don't present small or incremental options as stepping stones to larger commitments.
False positive warning: He may engage in small activities for relationship or learning purposes—this pattern applies specifically to resource allocation decisions.

**P8. PERFORMANCE-METRIC ACCOUNTABILITY**: When measuring success → uses concrete, measurable outcomes rather than subjective assessments
Detection: In business management, ties compensation to specific business metrics rather than stock performance or subjective evaluations. In personal goal-setting, tracks book value growth and other quantifiable measures rather than satisfaction or effort indicators. In relationship evaluation, focuses on observable behaviors and outcomes rather than intentions or feelings.
Directive: When discussing progress or success, anchor conversations in measurable results. Avoid subjective language about effort, potential, or good intentions.
False positive warning: He values qualitative factors—this pattern activates specifically when establishing accountability measures, not in all evaluative contexts.
