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Player Availability & Decision Support (Case Study)

An anonymized case study from a UK professional football academy environment.

Problem

Improve player availability and support longer-horizon decisions (e.g., development planning and retain/release discussions) by combining physical benchmarks with contextual performance signals. The hard part is messy data (gaps, changing definitions, small samples) and making outputs usable for non-technical stakeholders.

Impact (anonymized)

  • Sustained >90% player availability across high-intensity competition periods via improved monitoring and decision routines.
  • Drove an aggregate ~12% improvement across key physical output metrics through data-led periodisation and longitudinal tracking.
  • Reduced manual data entry by ~40% by automating ingestion/ETL from multiple external data sources.

Data (high-level)

  • Longitudinal load and exposure (training + match) from wearable tracking systems.
  • Availability and medical context (time-loss / restricted training windows).
  • Tactical context signals (e.g., xG/xT/VAEP-style aggregates) used as covariates, not as the sole driver.
  • Benchmarks and standards by position/age band.

Stack (representative)

  • SQL/Postgres for modeling-ready tables and longitudinal views
  • Python/R for feature engineering, modeling, and statistical evaluation
  • Dashboards/reports: Shiny/Dash-style reporting surfaces for staff-facing outputs

Approach

  • KPI redesign: defined actionable "availability" features to replace legacy, fragile KPIs.
  • Feature engineering: acute vs chronic exposure, trend breaks, monotonic constraints where appropriate, and standardized benchmarking (percentiles / z-scores) for comparability.
  • Modeling: started with transparent baselines (rules/linear/regularized) before evaluating non-linear alternatives.
  • Validation: time-aware splits and leakage control; calibration checks to make probability outputs decision-ready.

Decision support

  • Retain/release: combined tactical-context aggregates with physical benchmarks to support objective conversations.
  • Load management: translated model outputs into staff-friendly decision cards (what changed, why it matters, what to do next).

Governance

  • Designed for sensitive, human-centric data: access control, redaction-by-default reporting, and audit-friendly outputs.
flowchart LR
  A[Wearables + availability records + context metrics] --> B[Ingest + normalize]
  B --> C[Feature engineering]
  C --> D[Baselines + candidate models]
  D --> E[Time-aware validation + calibration]
  E --> F[Decision cards + dashboards]
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Outputs

  • A decision-support view that combines (1) availability risk/likelihood, (2) drivers/attribution at feature-group level, and (3) suggested actions (load management, monitoring focus, or further review).
  • A benchmarking layer for recruitment/development conversations (transparent percentiles and distributions).

Evidence

Example reporting outputs (anonymized visuals):

  • Benchmarking to determine asymmetry status: assets/benchmark_asymmetry.png
  • Game/week difficulty context: assets/game_difficulty.png
  • HR-integrated GPS training load monitoring: assets/hr_integrated_training_load.png
  • Sprint exposure monitoring: assets/sprint_exposure.png
  • Benchmarking cardiovascular capacities: assets/benchmark_cardio_capacity.png
  • Standardised per-minute match report (apples-to-apples): assets/per_minute_match_report.png

Benchmarking asymmetry status Game/week difficulty context HR-integrated GPS training load Sprint exposure monitoring Benchmarking cardiovascular capacities Per-minute match report

Confidentiality

Code, raw data, and internal identifiers are private. This repository documents the methodology, validation approach, and example artifacts without exposing proprietary details.

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Anonymized case study: availability KPI design, validation, and decision support

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