Summary

_is_entitlement_failure in run_agent.py over-matches on xAI Grok 403 responses, causing legitimate "OAuth access token failed validation" errors to be misclassified as unsubscribed-account entitlement failures. The defensive guard against entitlement refresh loops (existing test references issue #26847) suppresses the refresh-on-401 path for both real cases, leaving long-running TUI sessions stuck on a stale token with no recovery.

Workaround: exit and reopen the TUI — the startup refresh path bypasses the broken classifier.

Repro

1. Open a Hermes TUI session against provider/xai-oauth (SuperGrok).
2. Let it sit idle long enough that the access token goes stale by xAI's server-side criteria (in my case, ~22 hours; can happen sooner if xAI rotates session-side).
3. Send a request.
4. xAI returns HTTP 403 with this body:

{
  "code": "The caller does not have permission to execute the specified operation",
  "error": "The OAuth2 access token could not be validated. [WKE=unauthenticated:bad-credentials]"
}

5. Hermes logs Non-retryable client error and surfaces it to the user. No refresh attempt happens, even though the credential pool's _refresh_entry for this provider works fine (proven by opening a new TUI session — the startup-resolve path refreshes successfully).

Expected

The [WKE=unauthenticated:bad-credentials] suffix unambiguously indicates this is a credential-validation failure, not an entitlement failure. Hermes should:

• Call _recover_with_credential_pool → try_refresh_current() → _swap_credential
• Retry the request with the refreshed token
• Either succeed (the typical case after a stale token) or, if the refresh itself fails terminally, fall through to the existing terminal-quarantine path

Actual

_is_entitlement_failure returns True because the response body matches its substring heuristic on "caller does not have permission". The recovery short-circuits, returns False, error surfaces as non-retryable.

Root cause

xAI's API returns the same code field text for two distinct conditions:

The existing tests in tests/run_agent/test_codex_xai_oauth_recovery.py cover the entitlement case correctly (test_is_entitlement_failure_matches_real_xai_bodies), but there's no test case for the bad-credentials variant — so the classifier treats both identically.

The [WKE=unauthenticated:bad-credentials] suffix is xAI's authoritative disambiguator. Hermes currently ignores it.

Proposed fixes (escalating, pick one)

1. Tightest — In _is_entitlement_failure, check the body's error field first: if it contains [WKE=unauthenticated: (or specifically [WKE=unauthenticated:bad-credentials]), return False immediately. Refresh path then handles it.

2. Pragmatic — Require BOTH the entitlement keyword AND the absence of "OAuth2 access token could not be validated" before classifying as entitlement.

3. Safest — When the WKE suffix says unauthenticated, attempt refresh-once before classifying. The existing loop-protection still kicks in on the second 403 if refresh didn't actually help.

Fix #1 is mechanical and matches the explicit disambiguator xAI sends. Recommended.

Test additions

Suggested cases for tests/run_agent/test_codex_xai_oauth_recovery.py:

def test_is_entitlement_failure_false_for_bad_credentials_wke_suffix():
    """403 with WKE=unauthenticated:bad-credentials is auth failure, not entitlement."""
    from run_agent import AIAgent
    assert not AIAgent._is_entitlement_failure(
        {
            "code": "The caller does not have permission to execute the specified operation",
            "error": "The OAuth2 access token could not be validated. [WKE=unauthenticated:bad-credentials]",
        },
        403,
    )

def test_recover_with_credential_pool_refreshes_on_xai_bad_credentials_403():
    """A bad-credentials 403 from xai-oauth must trigger refresh."""
    # Same scaffolding as test_recover_with_credential_pool_still_refreshes_genuine_auth_failure,
    # but with status_code=403 and the bad-credentials error body. Should call try_refresh_current().

Impact

• Any long-running TUI / chat session against provider/xai-oauth will eventually 403 once the token goes stale, and the user has to exit/reopen to recover.
• Bridge adapters (Discord, Telegram, etc.) appear unaffected in practice because their process lifecycle / proactive refresh cadence keeps tokens fresh enough that the reactive-recovery path is rarely exercised. But they're vulnerable to the same bug under the right timing.
• Reproduced on two independent installations of Hermes against two separate SuperGrok-active xAI OAuth accounts — same exact symptom, same exact 403 body.

Environment

• Hermes — recent v0.14.x snapshot (cloned source, current main)
• Python 3.11.15 on Linux
• provider/xai-oauth source manual:xai_pkce (not loopback_pkce, but the bug is upstream of the loopback-vs-manual distinction)
• xAI Grok backend, grok-4.3 model, https://api.x.ai/v1