Description

This PR prevents stale or effectively settled Predict markets from occupying discovery feed surfaces.

• Adds an isolated marketStaleness utility for probability thresholds, formal market status, daily/game expiry, time penalties, ranking penalties, and highlighted-market exceptions.
• Applies the shared filter at hook/view-model boundaries for Predict feed data, search results, featured carousel data, and the World Cup feed without changing fetch parameters, page size, cursors, or backfill behavior.
• Preserves highlighted-market metadata from PredictController.getMarkets, keeping open highlighted markets pinned first while still excluding closed/resolved highlighted markets.
• Removes the old PredictMarketMultiple exact 0/1 outcome filter so display components render the outcomes already prepared by the shared feed model.

Branch review summary:

• Base: main
• Branch: predict/PRED-747-filter-dead-resolved-markets-from-predict-feed-4-layer-staleness-system
• Changed files: 16
• Commits: 7 scoped commits covering plan, utility, integration, tests, and component cleanup

Automated coverage added/updated:

• Pure staleness policy tests for outcome thresholds, invalid probabilities, outcome groups, formal status, time expiry, ranking penalties, and highlighted-market behavior.
• Hook integration tests for feed, search, carousel, and World Cup filtering.
• Controller tests for highlighted-market metadata and closed/resolved highlight exclusion.
• Component regression coverage confirming PredictMarketMultiple no longer owns price-based stale filtering.

Changelog

CHANGELOG entry: Fixed stale Predict markets appearing in discovery feeds and search results.

Related issues

Fixes: PRED-747

Related: PRED-707, PRED-533, PRED-744

Manual testing steps

Feature: Predict discovery staleness filtering

  Scenario: user views Predict discovery surfaces with stale and live markets
    Given Predict discovery data includes live markets, markets where all outcomes are at or beyond the dead probability thresholds, partially stale markets, and highlighted open markets

    When user opens the Trending tab, Predict search, featured carousel, or World Cup feed
    Then markets with no displayable live outcomes are not shown
    And partially stale markets show only live outcomes
    And open highlighted markets remain pinned first
    And closed or resolved highlighted markets are not shown
    And pagination state, cursors, and page sizes remain unchanged

Screenshots/Recordings

N/A - this is feed data filtering/ranking behavior covered by automated tests, with no intended layout or visual styling change.

Before Left / After Right

Pre-merge author checklist

• I've followed MetaMask Contributor Docs and MetaMask Mobile Coding Standards.
• I've completed the PR template to the best of my ability
• I've included tests if applicable
• I've documented my code using JSDoc format if applicable - N/A, no new public API requiring JSDoc.
• I've applied the right labels on the PR (see labeling guidelines). Not required for external contributors. Label application should be confirmed when creating the GitHub PR.

Performance checks (if applicable)

• I've tested on Android - N/A, no native or platform-specific rendering change; automated JS coverage was added for the affected data paths.
  • Ideally on a mid-range device; emulator is acceptable
• I've tested with a power user scenario - N/A, change is scoped to Predict feed market filtering and does not touch wallet/account/token scale paths.
  • Use these power-user SRPs to import wallets with many accounts and tokens
• I've instrumented key operations with Sentry traces for production performance metrics - N/A, no new network operation or long-running production operation was introduced.
  • See trace() for usage and addToken for an example

For performance guidelines and tooling, see the Performance Guide.

Pre-merge reviewer checklist

• I've manually tested the PR (e.g. pull and build branch, run the app, test code being changed).
• I confirm that this PR addresses all acceptance criteria described in the ticket it closes and includes the necessary testing evidence such as recordings and or screenshots.

Verification

yarn jest app/components/UI/Predict/utils/marketStaleness.test.ts app/components/UI/Predict/hooks/usePredictMarketData.test.tsx app/components/UI/Predict/hooks/usePredictSearchMarketData.test.tsx app/components/UI/Predict/hooks/useFeaturedCarouselData.test.ts app/components/UI/Predict/hooks/usePredictWorldCup.test.ts app/components/UI/Predict/components/PredictMarketMultiple/PredictMarketMultiple.test.tsx --runInBand --coverage=false
yarn jest app/components/UI/Predict/controllers/PredictController.test.ts -t "getMarkets with market highlights" --runInBand --coverage=false