chore(runway): cherry-pick fix(predict): preserve game market outcomes in staleness filtering cp-7.79.0 (#30704)

runway-github[bot] · caieu · web-flow · commit d0c1120df6ea · 2026-05-27T20:29:50.000Z
- fix(predict): preserve game market outcomes in staleness filtering cp-7.79.0 (#30699) ## **Description** Fixes World Cup/sports game cards that could show only two outcomes for draw-capable moneyline games when one outcome had very low odds. The shared market staleness filter removes outcomes priced at or below 5% or at or above 95%. That behavior is useful for multi-outcome non-game cards, but it breaks game cards that need the complete moneyline set. For example, Germany vs. Curacao has Germany, Draw, and Curacao outcomes, but Curacao can be priced below 5%. Once that outcome is filtered out, the card falls back to a binary path and the away-team button can open the `No` token for the favorite instead of the underdog moneyline. This change skips stale-price outcome filtering and stale-price ranking penalties for game markets. Closed markets and ended games are still filtered out as before. ## **Changelog** CHANGELOG entry: Fixed a bug where sports game cards could hide low-probability outcomes and open the wrong prediction. ## **Related issues** Fixes: https://consensyssoftware.atlassian.net/browse/PRED-934?atlOrigin=eyJpIjoiZjVmNDJkY2I3NzBjNGQ4MjgwZWY5MjQ5ZjcyOTlkYWMiLCJwIjoiaiJ9 ## **Manual testing steps** ```gherkin Feature: World Cup game card outcomes Scenario: user opens a draw-capable World Cup game card with a low-probability away team Given the World Cup feed includes a game with home, draw, and away moneyline outcomes And one of the moneyline outcomes is priced at or below 5% When user views the game card Then the card shows all available moneyline outcomes When user taps the away-team prediction button Then the buy sheet opens for the away-team outcome, not the favorite team's No token ``` ## **Screenshots/Recordings** ### **Before** <img width="420" height="861" alt="Screenshot 2026-05-27 at 14 27 35" src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/6ec940a0-5db6-4323-a7aa-58cb422c00a8" /> ### **After** <img width="420" height="875" alt="Screenshot 2026-05-27 at 14 27 49" src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/6f277b93-5d88-4353-87e0-68588e88f944" /> ## **Testing** - `node .yarn/releases/yarn-4.14.1.cjs jest app/components/UI/Predict/utils/marketStaleness.test.ts` ## **Pre-merge author checklist** - [ ] I've followed [MetaMask Contributor Docs](https://github.com/MetaMask/contributor-docs) and [MetaMask Mobile Coding Standards](https://github.com/MetaMask/metamask-mobile/blob/main/.github/guidelines/CODING_GUIDELINES.md). - [ ] I've completed the PR template to the best of my ability - [ ] I've included tests if applicable - [ ] I've documented my code using [JSDoc](https://jsdoc.app/) format if applicable - [ ] I've applied the right labels on the PR (see [labeling guidelines](https://github.com/MetaMask/metamask-mobile/blob/main/.github/guidelines/LABELING_GUIDELINES.md)). Not required for external contributors. #### Performance checks (if applicable) - [ ] I've tested on Android - Ideally on a mid-range device; emulator is acceptable - [ ] I've tested with a power user scenario - Use these [power-user SRPs](https://consensyssoftware.atlassian.net/wiki/spaces/TL1/pages/edit-v2/401401446401?draftShareId=9d77e1e1-4bdc-4be1-9ebb-ccd916988d93) to import wallets with many accounts and tokens - [ ] I've instrumented key operations with Sentry traces for production performance metrics - See [`trace()`](/app/util/trace.ts) for usage and [`addToken`](/app/components/Views/AddAsset/components/AddCustomToken/AddCustomToken.tsx#L274) for an example For performance guidelines and tooling, see the [Performance Guide](https://consensyssoftware.atlassian.net/wiki/spaces/TL1/pages/400085549067/Performance+Guide+for+Engineers). ## **Pre-merge reviewer checklist** - [ ] I've manually tested the PR (e.g. pull and build branch, run the app, test code being changed). - [ ] I confirm that this PR addresses all acceptance criteria described in the ticket it closes and includes the necessary testing evidence such as recordings and or screenshots.  --- > [!NOTE] > **Low Risk** > Scoped to Predict visibility/ranking utilities; closed and ended games remain hidden; non-game staleness behavior unchanged. > > **Overview** > **Game markets** with a `game` attachment are now exempt from Predict’s stale-price outcome filtering (≤5% / ≥95%) and from staleness-based feed ranking penalties, matching the existing **highlighted** market behavior. > > `getVisiblePredictMarket` returns the full market for open game markets after the usual closed/expired checks, so moneyline sets (e.g. home / draw / away) stay intact when an underdog is priced very low. Non-game cards still drop “dead” outcomes and can be deprioritized in the list. > > Tests cover full outcome preservation on game cards and unchanged ordering when a game market would otherwise be penalized. > > <sup>Reviewed by [Cursor Bugbot](https://cursor.com/bugbot) for commit 2ead89a. Bugbot is set up for automated code reviews on this repo. Configure [here](https://www.cursor.com/dashboard/bugbot).</sup>  [1de71fb](1de71fb) Co-authored-by: Caainã Jeronimo <caainaje@gmail.com>
diff --git a/app/components/UI/Predict/utils/marketStaleness.test.ts b/app/components/UI/Predict/utils/marketStaleness.test.ts
@@ -263,6 +263,20 @@ describe('marketStaleness', () => {
 
       expect(getVisiblePredictMarket(market, { now: NOW })).toEqual(market);
     });
+
+    it('keeps game markets without filtering stale-priced outcomes', () => {
+      const market = createMarket({
+        id: 'game-market',
+        game: createGame('scheduled'),
+        outcomes: [
+          createOutcome({ id: 'favorite', price: 0.97 }),
+          createOutcome({ id: 'draw', price: 0.04 }),
+          createOutcome({ id: 'underdog', price: 0.03 }),
+        ],
+      });
+
+      expect(getVisiblePredictMarket(market, { now: NOW })).toEqual(market);
+    });
   });
 
   describe('penalties and ranking', () => {
@@ -335,6 +349,22 @@ describe('marketStaleness', () => {
       ).toEqual(['highlighted', 'live', 'stale']);
     });
 
+    it('does not apply staleness ranking penalties to game markets', () => {
+      const stalePricedGame = createMarket({
+        id: 'stale-priced-game',
+        game: createGame('scheduled'),
+        outcomes: [createOutcome({ id: 'heavy-favorite', price: 0.99 })],
+      });
+      const liveOne = createMarket({ id: 'live-one' });
+      const liveTwo = createMarket({ id: 'live-two' });
+
+      expect(
+        getVisiblePredictMarkets([stalePricedGame, liveOne, liveTwo], {
+          now: NOW,
+        }).map((market) => market.id),
+      ).toEqual(['stale-priced-game', 'live-one', 'live-two']);
+    });
+
     it('preserves original order when ranking scores tie', () => {
       const first = createMarket({ id: 'first' });
       const second = createMarket({ id: 'second' });
diff --git a/app/components/UI/Predict/utils/marketStaleness.ts b/app/components/UI/Predict/utils/marketStaleness.ts
@@ -187,7 +187,7 @@ const getPredictMarketStalenessPenalty = (
   market: PredictMarket,
   options?: PredictMarketStalenessOptions,
 ): number => {
-  if (market.isHighlighted) {
+  if (market.isHighlighted || isGameMarket(market)) {
     return 1;
   }
 
@@ -213,6 +213,10 @@ export const getVisiblePredictMarket = (
     return null;
   }
 
+  if (isGameMarket(market)) {
+    return market;
+  }
+
   return filterVisibleMarketOutcomes(market);
 };
 
