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…iagrams, methodology integration flow, article-type-specific matrices, and unique sections tables from riksdagsmonitor Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/Hack23/euparliamentmonitor/sessions/6c5e487c-0163-4b4c-a800-e96d0116c913 Co-authored-by: pethers <1726836+pethers@users.noreply.github.com>
…ian updating, TOWS matrix, attack trees, kill chain, diamond model, scenario trees, power-interest mapping, political temperature index Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/Hack23/euparliamentmonitor/sessions/d9ff214a-8715-4b1e-bc61-b742f6392ae9 Co-authored-by: pethers <1726836+pethers@users.noreply.github.com>
…2.0: intelligence depth standards, attribution rules, time budgets, absolute rules, per-file architecture Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/Hack23/euparliamentmonitor/sessions/a39f7b0f-7330-4fd9-bc10-36f949c5dd25 Co-authored-by: pethers <1726836+pethers@users.noreply.github.com>
…3-projects-improvements Co-authored-by: pethers <1726836+pethers@users.noreply.github.com>
…rend tracking, calibration example), stakeholder-impact (conflicting impact resolution, Mermaid diagram), political-classification (filled calibration example); add Document Control footers to all 6 enhanced templates Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/Hack23/euparliamentmonitor/sessions/315164fc-133c-4075-b3ff-96db54c07f8c Co-authored-by: pethers <1726836+pethers@users.noreply.github.com>
…o 2026-03-31 in style guide and AI analysis guide Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/Hack23/euparliamentmonitor/sessions/315164fc-133c-4075-b3ff-96db54c07f8c Co-authored-by: pethers <1726836+pethers@users.noreply.github.com>
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Pull request overview
Documentation-only upgrade of the analysis/ framework to incorporate more advanced political intelligence techniques (attack trees, kill chain, diamond model, cascading risk, cross-SWOT/TOWS, evidence/quality-gate standards), aligning EU Parliament Monitor’s analysis guidance with the stated v2.0/v3.0 framework goals.
Changes:
- Expanded multiple analysis templates with advanced sections (risk/threat/SWOT/stakeholder/significance/classification) and added document-control footers.
- Extended methodology documentation with advanced analytical techniques, workflow integration diagrams, and article-type selection matrices.
- Updated
analysis/README.mdand directory/template/methodology READMEs with architecture diagrams and stricter operational rules (isolation, quality gates, anti-patterns).
Reviewed changes
Copilot reviewed 14 out of 14 changed files in this pull request and generated 10 comments.
Show a summary per file
| File | Description |
|---|---|
| analysis/README.md | Adds analysis system architecture, stricter rules, and an expanded directory structure description. |
| analysis/templates/README.md | Updates template catalog to v3.0 with architecture + detailed usage/quality-gate sequencing and anti-pattern guidance. |
| analysis/templates/risk-assessment.md | Adds cascading risk chain, interconnection mapping, forward indicators, freshness/escalation rules, document control. |
| analysis/templates/threat-analysis.md | Adds attack tree, kill chain assessment, diamond model + ICO profile, escalation decision matrix, document control. |
| analysis/templates/swot-analysis.md | Adds cross-SWOT interference, TOWS strategic options, scenario outlook, document control. |
| analysis/templates/stakeholder-impact.md | Adds conflicting impact resolution matrix, stakeholder mermaid impact map, document control. |
| analysis/templates/significance-scoring.md | Adds filled calibration example and trend tracking, document control. |
| analysis/templates/political-classification.md | Adds filled calibration example and document control metadata. |
| analysis/methodologies/README.md | Adds methodology architecture, catalog, integration flow, and article-type methodology selection matrix. |
| analysis/methodologies/ai-driven-analysis-guide.md | Adds “absolute rules”, per-file vs per-day architecture, time budgeting, and focus areas. |
| analysis/methodologies/political-style-guide.md | Adds intelligence depth standards, attribution rules, and policy-domain icon set. |
| analysis/methodologies/political-risk-methodology.md | Adds cascading risk, Bayesian updating, interconnection mapping, scenario tree techniques. |
| analysis/methodologies/political-swot-framework.md | Adds cross-SWOT interference, TOWS, scenario generation, and power-interest mapping. |
| analysis/methodologies/political-classification-guide.md | Adds PTI, strategic significance, and coalition impact vector advanced dimensions. |
analysis/README.md
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| end | ||
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| subgraph "📥 Data Ingestion Layer" | ||
| MCP["🔌 EP MCP Server\nv1.1.19"] |
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The architecture diagram hard-codes EP MCP Server as v1.1.19, but the rest of the repo configuration uses v1.1.20 (e.g., .github/copilot-mcp.json and copilot-setup-steps.yml). Update the diagram to match the actual MCP server version to avoid documentation drift.
| MCP["🔌 EP MCP Server\nv1.1.19"] | |
| MCP["🔌 EP MCP Server\nv1.1.20"] |
analysis/README.md
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| end | ||
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| subgraph "✅ Quality Assurance" | ||
| QG["✅ Quality Gate\n<i>7-check validation</i>"] |
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The diagram labels the quality gate as “7-check validation”, but elsewhere the quality gate is described as a checklist + a 5-dimension weighted score (and the template README’s sequence shows 6 explicit checks). Consider removing the hard-coded check count or aligning all docs to the same set/count of checks.
| QG["✅ Quality Gate\n<i>7-check validation</i>"] | |
| QG["✅ Quality Gate\n<i>Checklist + 5D score</i>"] |
analysis/README.md
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| ├── README.md ← This file (CRITICAL RULES — read first) | ||
| ├── data/ ← Persistent MCP data repository (collision-free) | ||
| │ ├── documents/ ← Parliamentary documents by type | ||
| │ │ ├── adopted-texts/ ← Adopted texts ({doc_id}.json + .meta.json) | ||
| │ │ ├── committee-documents/ ← Committee reports and opinions |
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This directory structure introduces an analysis/data/ persistent MCP data repository, but that directory does not currently exist in the repository. Either add the directory (and update workflows/scripts accordingly) or adjust the documentation so it reflects the actual on-disk layout.
| > **AI Instructions:** Show how the 6 EP risk dimensions affect each other. | ||
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| ```mermaid | ||
| graph TD | ||
| CR["🤝 Coalition Risk"] | ||
| LR["📋 Legislative Risk"] | ||
| IR["🏛️ Institutional Risk"] | ||
| ER["🗳️ Electoral Risk"] | ||
| DR["🗳️ Democratic Risk"] | ||
| XR["🌍 Geopolitical Risk"] | ||
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| CR -->|"Coalition instability delays<br/>legislative agenda"| LR | ||
| CR -->|"Grand Coalition friction<br/>weakens institutional credibility"| IR | ||
| LR -->|"Legislative failures erode<br/>public trust in EU"| ER | ||
| XR -->|"Geopolitical crisis forces<br/>rapid EU policy response"| LR | ||
| XR -->|"External pressure strains<br/>coalition solidarity"| CR | ||
| ER -->|"EP election proximity increases<br/>coalition posturing"| CR | ||
| DR -->|"Declining participation<br/>undermines legislative legitimacy"| IR |
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This interconnection map introduces risk dimensions (Legislative/Electoral/Democratic) that don’t match the six risk categories defined in the risk methodology (grand-coalition-stability, policy-implementation, institutional-integrity, economic-governance, social-cohesion, geopolitical-standing). Align the dimension names here (or add an explicit mapping) so analysts aren’t forced to translate between two competing taxonomies.
| > **AI Instructions:** Show how the 6 EP risk dimensions affect each other. | |
| ```mermaid | |
| graph TD | |
| CR["🤝 Coalition Risk"] | |
| LR["📋 Legislative Risk"] | |
| IR["🏛️ Institutional Risk"] | |
| ER["🗳️ Electoral Risk"] | |
| DR["🗳️ Democratic Risk"] | |
| XR["🌍 Geopolitical Risk"] | |
| CR -->|"Coalition instability delays<br/>legislative agenda"| LR | |
| CR -->|"Grand Coalition friction<br/>weakens institutional credibility"| IR | |
| LR -->|"Legislative failures erode<br/>public trust in EU"| ER | |
| XR -->|"Geopolitical crisis forces<br/>rapid EU policy response"| LR | |
| XR -->|"External pressure strains<br/>coalition solidarity"| CR | |
| ER -->|"EP election proximity increases<br/>coalition posturing"| CR | |
| DR -->|"Declining participation<br/>undermines legislative legitimacy"| IR | |
| > **AI Instructions:** Show how the 6 EP risk dimensions (grand-coalition-stability, policy-implementation, institutional-integrity, economic-governance, social-cohesion, geopolitical-standing) affect each other. | |
| ```mermaid | |
| graph TD | |
| CR["🤝 Grand-Coalition Stability"] | |
| LR["📋 Policy Implementation"] | |
| IR["🏛️ Institutional Integrity"] | |
| ER["💶 Economic Governance"] | |
| DR["🧩 Social Cohesion"] | |
| XR["🌍 Geopolitical Standing"] | |
| CR -->|"Coalition instability delays<br/>policy implementation agenda"| LR | |
| CR -->|"Grand Coalition friction<br/>weakens institutional integrity"| IR | |
| LR -->|"Implementation failures erode<br/>public trust and social cohesion"| DR | |
| XR -->|"Geopolitical crisis forces<br/>rapid EU policy response"| LR | |
| XR -->|"External pressure strains<br/>grand-coalition stability"| CR | |
| ER -->|"Budgetary and economic governance constraints<br/>increase coalition posturing"| CR | |
| DR -->|"Declining participation and social fragmentation<br/>undermine institutional legitimacy"| IR |
| ER["🗳️ Electoral Risk<br/>Score: [X]"] | ||
| XR["🌍 Geopolitical Risk<br/>Score: [X]"] | ||
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| CR -->|"Coalition instability delays<br/>legislative agenda"| PR | ||
| CR -->|"Grand Coalition friction<br/>weakens institutional credibility"| IR | ||
| PR -->|"Policy failures erode<br/>public trust in EU"| ER | ||
| IR -->|"Institutional pressure forces<br/>unwanted policy compromises"| PR | ||
| XR -->|"Geopolitical crisis forces<br/>rapid EU response"| PR | ||
| XR -->|"External pressure strains<br/>coalition solidarity"| CR | ||
| ER -->|"Election proximity increases<br/>coalition posturing"| CR | ||
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| style CR fill:#dc3545,color:#fff | ||
| style PR fill:#fd7e14,color:#fff | ||
| style IR fill:#ffc107,color:#000 | ||
| style ER fill:#0d6efd,color:#fff |
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The risk interconnection diagram models only 5 categories (CR/PR/IR/ER/XR) even though this document defines six EP political risk categories earlier (including economic-governance and social-cohesion). Please update the diagram (and the strength assessment table labels like “Coalition → Legislative”) to reflect the full six-category taxonomy consistently.
| ER["🗳️ Electoral Risk<br/>Score: [X]"] | |
| XR["🌍 Geopolitical Risk<br/>Score: [X]"] | |
| CR -->|"Coalition instability delays<br/>legislative agenda"| PR | |
| CR -->|"Grand Coalition friction<br/>weakens institutional credibility"| IR | |
| PR -->|"Policy failures erode<br/>public trust in EU"| ER | |
| IR -->|"Institutional pressure forces<br/>unwanted policy compromises"| PR | |
| XR -->|"Geopolitical crisis forces<br/>rapid EU response"| PR | |
| XR -->|"External pressure strains<br/>coalition solidarity"| CR | |
| ER -->|"Election proximity increases<br/>coalition posturing"| CR | |
| style CR fill:#dc3545,color:#fff | |
| style PR fill:#fd7e14,color:#fff | |
| style IR fill:#ffc107,color:#000 | |
| style ER fill:#0d6efd,color:#fff | |
| ER["🗳️ Electoral Risk<br/>Score: [X]"] | |
| SR["⚖️ Economic-Governance &<br/>Social-Cohesion Risk<br/>Score: [X]"] | |
| XR["🌍 Geopolitical Risk<br/>Score: [X]"] | |
| CR -->|"Coalition instability delays<br/>legislative agenda"| PR | |
| CR -->|"Grand Coalition friction<br/>weakens institutional credibility"| IR | |
| PR -->|"Policy failures erode<br/>public trust in EU"| ER | |
| PR -->|"Austerity or redistributive policies<br/>trigger social unrest"| SR | |
| IR -->|"Institutional pressure forces<br/>unwanted policy compromises"| PR | |
| XR -->|"Geopolitical crisis forces<br/>rapid EU response"| PR | |
| XR -->|"External pressure strains<br/>coalition solidarity"| CR | |
| XR -->|"Global economic shocks stress<br/>EU fiscal governance and social model"| SR | |
| ER -->|"Election proximity increases<br/>coalition posturing"| CR | |
| SR -->|"Social unrest reshapes<br/>electoral dynamics"| ER | |
| style CR fill:#dc3545,color:#fff | |
| style PR fill:#fd7e14,color:#fff | |
| style IR fill:#ffc107,color:#000 | |
| style ER fill:#0d6efd,color:#fff | |
| style SR fill:#198754,color:#fff |
| | **Manage Closely** (high power, high interest) | Full analysis; primary intelligence consumer | EP President, EPP, S&D, Renew, Commission President | | ||
| | **Keep Satisfied** (high power, low interest) | Monitor for engagement; alert on activation | EU Council, ECB, member state governments | | ||
| | **Keep Informed** (low power, high interest) | Regular reporting; citizen engagement | Media, civil society, industry associations, EU citizens | | ||
| | **Monitor** (low power, low interest) | Periodic check; no active engagement | NI MEPs, regional bodies, minor party delegations | |
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“NI MEPs” is ambiguous for readers and conflicts with the style guidance to spell out abbreviations for multi-language friendliness. Spell out the term (e.g., Non-Inscrits) on first use or replace with a clearer description.
| | **Monitor** (low power, low interest) | Periodic check; no active engagement | NI MEPs, regional bodies, minor party delegations | | |
| | **Monitor** (low power, low interest) | Periodic check; no active engagement | Non-Inscrits Members of the European Parliament (NI MEPs), regional bodies, minor party delegations | |
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| ## 🌳 Attack Tree — Primary Threat Decomposition | ||
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| > **AI Instructions:** Build an attack tree for the single most significant threat identified. The root is the threat goal; decompose using AND/OR gates down to leaf-level actions. Color-code by feasibility. |
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This section instructs to “Color-code by feasibility”, but the template provides fixed colors without explaining what each color represents (and some nodes are styled red/green without any feasibility scale/legend). Add a short legend (e.g., green=high feasibility, yellow=medium, red=low) or adjust the instruction to match the provided styling.
| > **AI Instructions:** Build an attack tree for the single most significant threat identified. The root is the threat goal; decompose using AND/OR gates down to leaf-level actions. Color-code by feasibility. | |
| > **AI Instructions:** Build an attack tree for the single most significant threat identified. The root is the threat goal; decompose using AND/OR gates down to leaf-level actions. Color-code by feasibility using this legend: 🟢 high feasibility, 🟡 medium feasibility, 🟠 low feasibility, 🔴 very low or blocked feasibility. |
analysis/methodologies/README.md
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| | **Purpose** | Master protocol governing all AI-driven political intelligence analysis | | ||
| | **Scope** | All agentic workflows, all analysis types, all output artifacts | | ||
| | **Key Rules** | Folder isolation · AI-only content · Multi-framework depth · Quality gates | | ||
| | **Version** | 3.0 | |
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The catalog assigns “Version: 3.0” to the AI-Driven Analysis Guide (and later to the other methodology docs), but the referenced documents’ own metadata currently shows lower versions (e.g., ai-driven-analysis-guide.md = 2.0; political-style-guide.md = 2.0; political-risk-methodology.md and political-classification-guide.md = 1.0). Please align the version numbers across the catalog and the individual documents so readers can trust what is current.
| 3. **Map second-order consequences** — what happens as a result of the first-order effects? | ||
| 4. **Identify branching points** — where does the chain split into alternative paths? | ||
| 5. **Score each node** independently using the 5×5 matrix | ||
| 6. **Calculate cumulative chain probability** — multiply probabilities along each path |
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Step 6 suggests calculating “cumulative chain probability” by multiplying probabilities along each path, but the methodology’s Likelihood input is a 1–5 ordinal scale (not a probability value) and no mapping from 1–5 to probabilities is provided. Either define an explicit probability mapping (e.g., 1=<5%, 2=5–20%, etc.) for use in multiplication, or remove the probability multiplication instruction to avoid false precision.
| 6. **Calculate cumulative chain probability** — multiply probabilities along each path | |
| 6. **Assess cumulative chain risk** — compare alternative paths using the node Likelihood × Impact scores and qualitative judgement; do not multiply the 1–5 Likelihood scores as if they were precise probabilities |
| | Verified media report with named sources | ±0.5 to ±1 | Politico reports trilogue stalled | | ||
| | Single unnamed source | ±0.5 | "Sources say Commissioner may resign" | | ||
| | Statistical data (Eurostat, World Bank) | ±0.5 to ±1 | GDP growth data, unemployment change | |
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The Evidence Strength Table uses fractional likelihood adjustments (±0.5) but the likelihood scale is defined as integer 1–5 earlier in the methodology. Clarify whether fractional likelihood values are allowed (and how they should be rounded/represented), or restrict adjustments to whole steps to stay consistent with the scoring model.
| | Verified media report with named sources | ±0.5 to ±1 | Politico reports trilogue stalled | | |
| | Single unnamed source | ±0.5 | "Sources say Commissioner may resign" | | |
| | Statistical data (Eurostat, World Bank) | ±0.5 to ±1 | GDP growth data, unemployment change | | |
| | Verified media report with named sources | ±1 | Politico reports trilogue stalled | | |
| | Single unnamed source | ±1 | "Sources say Commissioner may resign" | | |
| | Statistical data (Eurostat, World Bank) | ±1 | GDP growth data, unemployment change | |
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@copilot apply changes based on the comments in this thread |
…l, data/ directory, risk taxonomy alignment, NI MEPs abbreviation, attack tree legend, version numbers, probability scale, evidence adjustments Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/Hack23/euparliamentmonitor/sessions/3680ee86-fc26-4e39-9fd0-b4857e74ca4c Co-authored-by: pethers <1726836+pethers@users.noreply.github.com>
All 10 review comments addressed in commit
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| ## 🔗 Advanced Technique 1: Cascading Risk Analysis | ||
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| Political risks rarely occur in isolation. A **cascading risk chain** models how one risk event triggers subsequent risks: |
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This file adds substantial new ‘Advanced Technique’ content, but the document metadata at the top still says Version 1.0 / Last Updated 2026-03-28. Please update the version and last-updated fields so readers can tell they’re using the revised methodology and so it stays consistent with the v2.0/v3.0 framework documentation.
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| ## 🔄 Advanced Technique 1: Cross-SWOT Interference Analysis | ||
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| When the EU political landscape involves multiple actors (Grand Coalition, Opposition, kingmaker groups), their SWOT elements don't exist in isolation — they **interfere** with each other, creating amplification effects: |
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This framework now includes multiple new ‘Advanced Technique’ sections, but the metadata header still shows Version 1.0 / Last Updated 2026-03-28. Please bump/update the document metadata to reflect these changes and keep it consistent with the rest of the upgraded methodology set.
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| ## 🌡️ Advanced Dimension 1: Political Temperature Index | ||
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| The Political Temperature Index (PTI) is a **composite score (0–100)** measuring how politically heated an EP event is — beyond simple sensitivity classification: |
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Advanced dimensions (Political Temperature Index, Strategic Significance, Coalition Impact Vector) are introduced below, but the document header metadata still indicates Version 1.0 / Last Updated 2026-03-28. Please update version/last-updated to reflect this revision (and keep it aligned with the other v2.0/v3.0 methodology docs).
analysis/README.md
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| ### Rule 6: Deep Analysis — Not Shallow Summaries | ||
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| Every analysis file must demonstrate **genuine political intelligence depth**. The quality standard is [SWOT.md](../SWOT.md) and [THREAT_MODEL.md](../THREAT_MODEL.md) — not brief summaries. |
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Rule 4 explicitly rejects STRIDE for political intelligence, but Rule 6 cites THREAT_MODEL.md as a quality standard even though that document is a STRIDE-based security threat model. This is contradictory guidance; please replace THREAT_MODEL.md with a Political Threat Landscape example/reference (e.g., analysis/methodologies/political-threat-framework.md or a representative analysis artifact) so the exemplar matches the “NOT STRIDE” rule.
| Every analysis file must demonstrate **genuine political intelligence depth**. The quality standard is [SWOT.md](../SWOT.md) and [THREAT_MODEL.md](../THREAT_MODEL.md) — not brief summaries. | |
| Every analysis file must demonstrate **genuine political intelligence depth**. The quality standard is [SWOT.md](../SWOT.md) and [Political Threat Framework](methodologies/political-threat-framework.md) — not brief summaries. |
analysis/templates/README.md
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| PRE->>PRE: Download data (scripts ONLY download) | ||
| PRE->>AI: Raw documents + stub files |
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The sequence diagram states “Download data (scripts ONLY download)”, but the broader docs (e.g., analysis/README.md Rule 3) allow scripts to also do non-analytical tasks like validating output format/quality-gate checks, cataloging pending files, and moving/renaming files. Consider rewording this to clarify that scripts may download + perform validation/housekeeping, while AI performs all analytical content generation.
| PRE->>PRE: Download data (scripts ONLY download) | |
| PRE->>AI: Raw documents + stub files | |
| PRE->>PRE: Download data + non-analytical validation/housekeeping | |
| PRE->>AI: Prepared documents + stub files (no analytical content) |
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@copilot apply changes based on the comments in this thread |
…IDE THREAT_MODEL.md ref, clarify script role in templates README Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/Hack23/euparliamentmonitor/sessions/8c6f8869-0d37-4c9a-90fc-33fec768c0c4 Co-authored-by: pethers <1726836+pethers@users.noreply.github.com>
All 5 review comments addressed in commit
The methodologies/README.md version catalog was also updated to match (classification, risk, SWOT all → 2.0). |
| > **AI Instructions:** Build an attack tree for the single most significant threat identified. The root is the threat goal; decompose using AND/OR gates down to leaf-level actions. Color-code by feasibility using this legend: 🟢 high feasibility, 🟡 medium feasibility, 🟠 low feasibility, 🔴 very low or blocked feasibility. | ||
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| ```mermaid | ||
| graph TD | ||
| ROOT["🎯 GOAL: [REQUIRED: Primary threat goal<br/>e.g. 'Block Green Deal implementation']<br/>(OR — any child path suffices)"] |
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In the Attack Tree instructions you define a feasibility color legend (🟢/🟡/🟠/🔴), but the example styles don’t consistently follow it (e.g., ROOT is styled red and some path nodes are orange regardless of feasibility). This makes the legend ambiguous; either align the example node styles with the feasibility legend or clarify what each color represents for ROOT/path nodes vs leaf steps.
| | 👑 | Power concentration (Elevation threat) | | ||
| | 🎭 | Disinformation (Spoofing threat) | |
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This emoji legend references STRIDE terminology ("Elevation threat", "Spoofing threat"), but the surrounding documentation explicitly rejects STRIDE for political intelligence. To avoid mixed guidance, remove STRIDE labels here or map these emojis to the Political Threat Landscape dimensions (e.g., Institutional Pressure / Transparency Deficit) instead.
| | 👑 | Power concentration (Elevation threat) | | |
| | 🎭 | Disinformation (Spoofing threat) | | |
| | 👑 | Power concentration; institutional pressure | | |
| | 🎭 | Disinformation; transparency deficit / information integrity risk | |
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@copilot apply changes based on the comments in this thread |
… remove STRIDE refs from style guide emoji legend Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/Hack23/euparliamentmonitor/sessions/eff40a4c-e3df-43b1-8c2e-3fcc1383d18a Co-authored-by: pethers <1726836+pethers@users.noreply.github.com>
Both review comments addressed in commit
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Ports proven analytical techniques from riksdagsmonitor's v3.0 analysis framework to strengthen EU Parliament political intelligence depth. Documentation-only — no code changes.
README infrastructure → v3.0
Methodology files — advanced techniques
Template files → v2.0 with Document Control footers