whats ur view on Druckenmiller reducing his AMZN expo by 70% from prior quarter.
do you think that makes sense given that most of the capex growth is just component price inflation and not real capacity expansion? so AMZN is sitting on overpriced assets that will weigh on earnings through depreciation for years while the stock is still priced like the AI buildout is exactly as big as the headline numbers suggest.
or is it more to do with rate hikes looking more likely so cash might go there to compounded at rfr instead.
Hm I’m not sure tbh. People sell for many reasons but only buy for one specific. I don’t think that his view on the capacity buildout or rates had anything to do with inflation. Maybe he just thought he found something he liked even more.
I also think we’re still in the early innings of this buildout and AI is only used by a small percentage of the population. Jassy and Garman said many times that they’re supply constrained and not demand constrained. They’re not building something that they don’t have demand for. And they wouldn’t build it if the ROI wouldn’t justify it.
Also with AWS the customer lock-in and switching costs are very high and they see more and more customers are likely at point going to need even more AI compute. I think the enterprise usage // adoption is still very low compared to what’s possible.
I just ran 13F for his fund, CIK: 1536411, running some questionable python code, so...
Although, if I run it for my favorite fund (Praetorian) all data is correct.
Here are his top 10 positions (will see how copy/paste will come out)
NTRA Natera Inc 3,063,606 shares
EWZ Ishares Inc 7,664,170 shares
INSM Insmed Inc 1,154,090 shares
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac 495,280 shares
RSP Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T 821,000 shares
YPF Ypf Sociedad Anonima 3,235,962 shares
TBBB Bbb Foods Inc 3,109,202 shares
AA Alcoa Corp 1,493,390 shares
NAMS Newamsterdam Pharma Company 3,070,146 shares
SE Sea Ltd 1,099,905 shares
So, he reduced Amazon (~70%) and Coupang (~60%) and added to Sea. Correct?
P.s.
Monday may be interresting to check CIK: 2045724 - Situational Awareness LP - a 23 old Leopold Aschenbrenner, who in pretty short time increased his fund from 233M to 5.5B. But I don't know how much of this increase came from holdings and how much from new cash inflows. (ok I'm done) ;-)
Yes, Amazon with it's warehouses is probably best candidate to automatize as much as possible.
More robots are being produced, lower their price, more they will be viable replacement for human labor. Soon, humans will not be needed any more in most places. But corporate profits will go up, so there is that. :(
It’s always the same story: „Robots and automation will replace workers.“ So far it has mostly never been true.
It replaces tasks of human workers. And those human workers get trained to do something else.
We’ve had so many technological advancements over the last 150 years, and the same story repeated itself every time there was a major shift. Look at the industrial revolutions!
For the other subject, I hope you are correct. But watching and listening to WEF and similar, my fear is: " This Time is Different" :-)))) (Btw, I'm old, I fear for others, not for me)
Good luck with your investements and thanks for sharing your wisdom.
whats ur view on Druckenmiller reducing his AMZN expo by 70% from prior quarter.
do you think that makes sense given that most of the capex growth is just component price inflation and not real capacity expansion? so AMZN is sitting on overpriced assets that will weigh on earnings through depreciation for years while the stock is still priced like the AI buildout is exactly as big as the headline numbers suggest.
or is it more to do with rate hikes looking more likely so cash might go there to compounded at rfr instead.
would appreciate ur thoughts
Hm I’m not sure tbh. People sell for many reasons but only buy for one specific. I don’t think that his view on the capacity buildout or rates had anything to do with inflation. Maybe he just thought he found something he liked even more.
I also think we’re still in the early innings of this buildout and AI is only used by a small percentage of the population. Jassy and Garman said many times that they’re supply constrained and not demand constrained. They’re not building something that they don’t have demand for. And they wouldn’t build it if the ROI wouldn’t justify it.
Also with AWS the customer lock-in and switching costs are very high and they see more and more customers are likely at point going to need even more AI compute. I think the enterprise usage // adoption is still very low compared to what’s possible.
Curious on how you get so many likes and restacks!
Likes because it's not half bad?
Restacks because I am promoting my work.
Great post!!! 👏🏼
Can I bug you a little bit more? :)
I just ran 13F for his fund, CIK: 1536411, running some questionable python code, so...
Although, if I run it for my favorite fund (Praetorian) all data is correct.
Here are his top 10 positions (will see how copy/paste will come out)
NTRA Natera Inc 3,063,606 shares
EWZ Ishares Inc 7,664,170 shares
INSM Insmed Inc 1,154,090 shares
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac 495,280 shares
RSP Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T 821,000 shares
YPF Ypf Sociedad Anonima 3,235,962 shares
TBBB Bbb Foods Inc 3,109,202 shares
AA Alcoa Corp 1,493,390 shares
NAMS Newamsterdam Pharma Company 3,070,146 shares
SE Sea Ltd 1,099,905 shares
So, he reduced Amazon (~70%) and Coupang (~60%) and added to Sea. Correct?
P.s.
Monday may be interresting to check CIK: 2045724 - Situational Awareness LP - a 23 old Leopold Aschenbrenner, who in pretty short time increased his fund from 233M to 5.5B. But I don't know how much of this increase came from holdings and how much from new cash inflows. (ok I'm done) ;-)
Let’s move this to DMs.
I’ll get back to you there
Great content as always! These companies (Coupang, Sea and Amazon) will definitely be the biggest winners of the AI and robotics era.
Thanks for the kind words. How are you positioned?
I find it interesting that Druckenmiller sold/trimmed MELI and bought the others
Yes, Amazon with it's warehouses is probably best candidate to automatize as much as possible.
More robots are being produced, lower their price, more they will be viable replacement for human labor. Soon, humans will not be needed any more in most places. But corporate profits will go up, so there is that. :(
Btw, what is the Druckenmiller fund name?
It’s always the same story: „Robots and automation will replace workers.“ So far it has mostly never been true.
It replaces tasks of human workers. And those human workers get trained to do something else.
We’ve had so many technological advancements over the last 150 years, and the same story repeated itself every time there was a major shift. Look at the industrial revolutions!
His fund is called Duquesne Family Office 😊
Thank you very much for the name!
For the other subject, I hope you are correct. But watching and listening to WEF and similar, my fear is: " This Time is Different" :-)))) (Btw, I'm old, I fear for others, not for me)
Good luck with your investements and thanks for sharing your wisdom.
Haha 😅
Yeah sure! Thanks for reaching out!
I’m always happy to help 😊
What’s difference between Amazon robotics and Agility Robotics that is a Preipo company