Reasons for optimism
Updated statistics on bus usage and growth spending across the North
When I started writing here back in the summer, I said I wanted to be optimistic about the future.
And two recent statistical releases have helped to buoy that optimism.
Firstly, back in ‘the wheels on the bus’, I wrote about how public control of buses, alongside a more rational ticketing system, might improve public transport networks across the North.
The recently released statistics for 2024-25 show that bus passenger usage has increased. But the most significant increase has been in Greater Manchester, when compared to other parts of the North with large bus usage.1
As shown below, Greater Manchester bus patronage in 2024-25 was up 19% from 2022-23 - the last full financial year before the franchising process began. This is higher than the other areas on the chart. Could this show that bringing buses back into public control is starting to make a difference?2
Secondly, back in ‘building the future’, I talked about the ‘growth spending’ gap between the Greater South East around London and the North.
I defined growth spending as encompassing areas of government spend like transport, research, education, housing and community amenities. The kind of areas that economists broadly agree drive economic growth. Using Treasury statistics, it is possible to then see how much is spent per person in each region on these things.
The gap is simply the difference between how much is spent per head in one part of the country versus another. It symbolises the kinds of things we prioritise as a society in each area.3
The most recent statistics have made minor revisions to previous years as shown but also the beginnings of a potential trend towards closing the gap.
From a last parliament peak of 19% in 2021-22, the gap dropped to 14% in the period covering April 2024 to March 2025.
Comparing different areas of spending, I’ve looked below at the main components of ‘growth spending’ (defined as ones with over £100 per head in 24-25 in the North or GSE) to see what is driving the convergence.
From the above there is a mixed picture - but the closing gap in economic development, transport and education has effectively more than offset the marginally increasing gaps in science and technology and housing and communities spend. In fact, given the housing issues facing the Greater South East, the latter change is no surprise - but we must do better in terms of closing the gap in science and technology spend given the economic challenges of the North.
Overall, it is difficult to attribute credit for the gap reduction fairly. Financial year 2024-25 covered the last year of the previous government’s spending plans but also the beginnings of the new government making some adjustments. This is a trend to keep an eye on.
So what does this all mean?
To me, it shows that determined effort can start to close some of our divides. I’ve shown before how the economy of the North has been performing well since the pandemic - though from a low base. With a sustained decrease in growth spending gaps and statistics which show changes like bus franchising are starting to make a difference then perhaps we can enter the Christmas period with a bit of optimism?
The areas shown here all have passenger journeys over 20m in 2024-25 - I used this as a proxy for large or urban areas to try to have a fair comparison. Some smaller areas of the North in terms of bus usage have seen a larger percentage increase e.g. East Riding and Northumberland. Perhaps the bus fares cap is making a difference in more rural areas? See the full statistics here. Also, the bus statistics refer to ‘Tyne & Wear CA’ which is a little odd but I think applies to the old Tyne & Wear area - given for example Northumberland is split out as a separate area - rather than the North East CA area.
Bus patronage has also increased by a similar but smaller jump in the West Midlands at 17% - an area which until now has been pursuing an ‘enhanced partnership’ rather than ‘franchising’ arrangement. This opens up an interesting question as to what extent wider trends are driving the increase versus these kind of bus arrangement changes. I’m no expert on the West Midlands bus system - what difference have the changes there made to passengers?
Some people think these statistics aren’t very useful - or at worst misleading. For example, a typical point is that some elements of transport spending in London are likely financed by farebox revenue so shouldn’t count as government spending. There are three points to make here. Firstly, the ability to have such revenues is a symbol of previous prioritisation and investment - and this applies just as much to London as it does to the more limited metro systems in places like Liverpool, Sheffield and Newcastle. London has received a significant TfL grant over many years to enable this (which was then baselined as part of Business Rates Retention). Secondly, I intentionally broadened out the geography to the Greater South East to iron out some of the urban/rural issues you get from focusing on differences with London - which itself is such an anomaly as the only predominantly urban region in the UK. Thirdly, and most importantly, the point here is not really about the past - it is about the future - whatever happened to get us to this situation it is clearly not good that some regions are focused more on growth where others are the recipients of disproportionate ‘social protection’ spend. These imbalances have not been good for our economy, society or politics. Or to paraphrase: Philosophers have only interpreted the world - the point is to change it!
The next thing Manchester needs to do is to begin to slowly squeeze access to the city centre by the private car, and re-engineer arterial routes to favour buses. To a degree that’s happened as surface parking gets redeveloped, but we need to nudge the city into a place where bike, bus and train are preferred choices for getting into town.
Do we know whether the revenue subsidy (ignoring transitional costs)has increased more in Manchester than other areas over the period?