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Making Forecasting Scores Easier to Interpret: Introducing the Brier Index
A simple transformation that makes the Brier Score intuitive
Mar 4
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Forecasting Research Institute
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What Do Experts and Superforecasters Think about the Geopolitical Implications of AI?
In Wave 5 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel survey, we asked for forecasts on the U.S.–China AI performance gap, frontier chip manufacturing, use of…
Feb 23
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Forecasting Research Institute
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How Well Did Superforecasters and Experts Predict Wet Lab Skill Uplift from LLMs?
An RCT tested whether LLMs could help novices at molecular biology tasks. Here’s what forecasters predicted before the study, and how they updated their…
Feb 19
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Forecasting Research Institute
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LLMs Are Closing the Gap on Human Superforecasters
We opened our AI forecasting benchmark to external submissions. Here’s what happened.
Jan 29
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Forecasting Research Institute
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What Experts and Superforecasters Think About the Future of AI Research and Development
In Wave 4 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel, we asked for predictions on AI R&D, technology company valuations and hiring, hyperscale infrastructure…
Jan 12
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Forecasting Research Institute
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A Professional Superforecaster Walks Us Through His AI Progress Forecasts
In our AI progress forecasting panel, we posed questions on when AI would help solve a Millennium Prize Problem and the rise of autonomous vehicles…
Jan 6
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Forecasting Research Institute
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Introducing LEAP: The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel
Every month, we ask top computer scientists, economists, industry leaders, policy experts and superforecasters for their AI predictions. Here’s what we…
Nov 10, 2025
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Forecasting Research Institute
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Put your AI forecaster to the test on ForecastBench
Our LLM forecasting accuracy benchmark is now open to public submissions. Here’s how to submit your model to ForecastBench.
Oct 28, 2025
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Forecasting Research Institute
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Forecasting Research Institute
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