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Can You Judge a Forecast by Its Rationale?
What we learned from using LLMs to score the reasoning behind 55,000+ forecasts.
 • Forecasting Research Institute
Experts and Superforecasters Update Their AI Timelines
In Wave 8 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel we asked panelists to forecast AI's overall impact on human society, AGI timelines, near-term progress on…
 • Forecasting Research Institute
When Will Robots Pass the "Coffee Test"? Expert Forecasts on the Future of Robotics
In Wave 7 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel, we asked for forecasts about robots in factories, hospitals, and our homes as well as the U.S. labor…
 • Forecasting Research Institute
Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy.
 • Forecasting Research Institute
Making Forecasting Scores Easier to Interpret: Introducing the Brier Index
A simple transformation that makes the Brier Score intuitive
 • Forecasting Research Institute
What Do Experts and Superforecasters Think about the Geopolitical Implications of AI?
In Wave 5 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel survey, we asked for forecasts on the U.S.–China AI performance gap, frontier chip manufacturing, use of…
 • Forecasting Research Institute
How Well Did Superforecasters and Experts Predict Wet Lab Skill Uplift from LLMs?
An RCT tested whether LLMs could help novices at molecular biology tasks. Here’s what forecasters predicted before the study, and how they updated their…
 • Forecasting Research Institute
Forecasting Research Institute
Forecasting Research Institute
Using the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high-stake issues

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