When global economic conditions are uncertain, investors often flock to gold. When certainty returns, they may head in a different direction. This year is a case in point, as gold prices established a high for the century in January at $5,500 per ounce. But with seeming progress in winding down the Iran war, the price of gold drifted down to the $4,450 range, for a gain of about 2% for the year. Back in 2019, gold was at about $1,200 per ounce. That changed rapidly during the first phase of the pandemic, as the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped 33% in six months. Gold next spiked in 2022 due to the war in Ukraine. And over the past year, gold jumped another 33%, driven by global uncertainty over tariffs, among other developments. The current price reflects the perceived safety of hard assets amid global give-and-takes, as well as expectations for lower U.S. interest rates, which tend to weaken the dollar (the currency in which gold is priced). The outlook for Fed rate cuts also helps gold, as lower rates reduce the risk of a global recession and thus a decline in gold purchased for jewelry. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2026 is $4,000-$6,000 and our average price forecast is $4,500. This compares to an average gold price of $3,455 in 2025. Technically, the price of gold had been in a long-term bullish trend of higher highs and higher lows. But momentum may have stretched prices. On average, the price of gold has traded at a 6% premium to its 12-month moving average this century. The standard deviation is 9%. Earlier this year, the premium almost reached 40%, more than three standard deviations above the norm. As a fundamental valuation measure, we compare the price of gold to the value of the S&P 500. Over the past 45 years, the S&P 500 has been priced in a normal range of 3-to-1 times an ounce of old. A reading above 3 likely reflects too much confidence in the S&P 500, while a reading below 1 is a nosebleed price for gold. The current ratio is about 1.7, not far from average. As long as geopolitics are flaring and the global economy is wobbling, gold is likely to remain at elevated levels.

Founded in 1921, Denver-based Newmont is the world's largest gold-mining company, with assets and operations in North America, South America, Australia/New Zealand, and Africa. While approximately 85% of its revenues come from gold, the company is also a major producer of copper. The company has about 17,500 employees. It is the only gold producer in the S&P 500.

The major stock indices are lower at midday on Thursday. Walmart reported early today and Nvidia reported last night after the close. The two companies are bellwethers, one for retail and consumer sentiment, and the other for the pace of AI. Neither company impressed Wall Street and both stocks are in the red today. In other market-moving news, the price of oil is headed north once again after Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei directed that the country's enriched uranium should stay within the borders of Iran.

Newmont is the world's largest gold miner. It bought Goldcorp in 2019, combined its Nevada mines in a joint venture with competitor Barrick later that year, and also purchased competitor Newcrest in November 2023. Its portfolio includes 11 mines and interests in two joint ventures in the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea. The company is expected to sell roughly 5.3 million ounces of gold in 2026 from its continuing mines after selling six higher-cost, smaller mines following the Newcrest acquisition. Newmont also produces material amounts of copper, silver, zinc, and lead as byproducts. It had about two decades of gold reserves, along with significant byproduct reserves at the end of December 2025.