The 10-year Treasury rose to 4.69% on Tuesday, the highest level since January 2025, and then dropped slightly to 4.59% at the close. There was a minor break above the trendline off the highs since October 2023, but it was not convincing. Lateral levels are much more important, and the next region is the early 2025 high at 4.8% and then the 2023 peak at 5%. Intermediate-term momentum using the price percentage oscillator (PPO) has traced out higher lows and crossed into positive territory, but the transition has been very slow and not definitive. On the downside, a break of 4.3% would likely end the yield uptrend that started at the beginning of March. With the 2-year Treasury yield over the federal funds target by 35-60 basis points (bps), the Treasury market is leaning toward a 25-bps hike, or two. Still, the CME FedWatch Tool does not see a high probability of a 25-bps increase in the fed funds rate until the last meeting of the year on December 9. The next FOMC meeting takes place over June 16 and 17, with the new chairman, Kevin Warsh, delivering his first press conference. Does he stir the pot and give the financial markets something to worry about, or does he stay the course and deliver no surprise? If anything, it should be interesting to hear a different take on the economy, inflation, elevated oil prices, enormous government debt levels, and monetary policy. Mr. Warsh believes in less intervention in monetary policy, favoring a smaller FOMC footprint and stricter limits on quantitative easing. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

April was an amazing month for the stock market. The S&P 500 (SPX) soared 10.4%, the Nasdaq ripped higher by 15.3%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) spiked 15.7%, the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) rose 7.7%, and the S&P SmallCap 600 (SML) tacked on 10%. It was the best monthly performance for the SPX since April 2020 and November 2020. Other 10% monthly rips occurred in October 2011, December 1991, January 1987, August 1984, August and October 1982, November 1980, January 1976, January 1975, October 1974, November 1962, September 1939, June 1938, and many times after the 1929 to 1932 crash. Going back to 1962, when massive one-month gains occurred with the index at an all-time high at the end of the month, strong returns followed over the next 12 months.

Generac Holdings Inc., based in Waukesha, Wisconsin, designs, manufactures, and sells power generation equipment, energy storage systems, and other power products for the residential, light commercial, and industrial markets. The company has approximately 5,400 employees, and its shares are a component of the S&P 500.

Wednesday saw another eruption in crude oil, with WTI exploding over 8% and trading at $108.50/barrel late in the day. Brent oil soared over 9% to $121.30/barrel. WTI is near its highest close since the war started, which was $113, while Brent hit a new high, taking out its prior high close near $113 from March 30. Gasoline futures popped over 5% to a new high of $3.61/gallon, up 80% since February 24 when it traded at just $2.00/gallon. Energy stocks have, of course, benefited. The Energy Select SPDR (XLE) ripped higher by 2.3%, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP) surged 3.5%, and the VanEck Oil Services (OIH) rose 'only' 1%. The OIH and the Dow Jones U.S. Oil Equipment & Services Index were the only oil indices to reach all-time highs on Wednesday. An oddity we discovered about the recent decline and (now) wicked reversal to the upside is the action of the S&P 500's daily Bollinger Bands (BB). Generally, the width of the BBs will peak near or at the bottom of a pullback or correction, this as declines are usually faster than uptrends. At the recent bottom, the BBs were almost 9% apart -- but during the ensuing rally, the BB width was over 15%. Looking at the period from February to June 2025, the width of the bands peaked on April 21, right near the bottom at nearly 18%. After the S&P 500 rallied back to the prior high, the width of the band was only 4%. Still, during the 2023 pullback, the peak in the width of the BB occurred during the rally phase. In the 2022 bear market, the BB width peaked in June, more than three months before the bottom.