Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, based in Lebanon, Tennessee, operates roughly 660 Cracker Barrel restaurants and gift shops in 44 states, primarily in the Southeast and the Midwest. It operated 68 Maple Street Biscuit stores at the end of FY25. Founded in 1969, the company has more than 70,000 employees.

Thursday looked like a day of indecision until the early afternoon, when President Trump (again) called off strikes on Iran and said the U.S. will soon sign a deal with that country. Markets went ballistic, with crude oil tanking, Treasury bonds ripping, and stocks exploding - and with money flowing back into prior leaders, namely anything AI. After about 40 headlines that suggested a deal was close, the markets responded like the war in the Middle East is already over and that the Strait of Hormuz is already reopened.

The war in the Middle East has now entered a fourth week and remains the major headline for geopolitics, as well as a source of concern for global investors. Otherwise, this is a quiet week for both economic and earnings news. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all shed about 2%. Year to date, all three indices are in the red, with the Dow lower by 5.2%, the S&P 500 down by 5.0%, and the Nasdaq off by 6.8%. Turning to the earnings calendar, most companies don't start to issue quarterly results again until mid-April. The big banks, which are the unofficial first reporters, kick off the new earnings season on Tuesday, April 14. The economic calendar is also light, though many Federal Reserve officials will be on the speaking circuit. The impact of the war is starting to show up in economic forecasts. Atlanta Fed GDPNow now forecasts 2.3% growth for 1Q. That's down from 2.7% last week and 3.0% the week before. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast calls for 3.0% for March, a substantial move higher from the 2.6% estimate posted two weeks ago. Mortgage rates also made a big move higher, up another 11 basis points last week. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now at 6.22%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices jumped another $0.22 (after a climb of $0.48 last week) and are at an average of $3.72 per gallon for regular gas. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on April 29. Odds have pivoted from a rate cut to a rate hike. The likelihood of a rate hike is at only 12% -- but it's been a long time since there has been any forecast for an increase in rates. Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to be the next Fed chairman, is still making his way through the Congressional approval process. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell whose term as chairman expires soon, will remain on the FOMC. Taking a deeper dive into performance so far in 2026, a leading industrialized global stock market index, the ETF EFA, is down 3% year to date. The leading emerging market ETF (EEM) is up 1%. U.S. growth stocks are down 10% year to date looking at ETF IWF, while value stocks (IWD) are flat. In other asset classes for the year to date, AGG bonds are down 1%, gold is up 3%, crude oil is up 68%, and Bitcoin is down 20%. The U.S. dollar is up 1%, tracking DXY. The VIX Volatility Index was at about 27 on Friday, above its historical average of 20. Turning to sector performance, the list from first to worst so far in 2026 is Energy (+28%), Consumer Staples (+10%), Utilities (+9%), Materials (+8%), Industrials (+6%), Real Estate (+3%), Communication Services (-3%), Healthcare (-4%), Information Technology (-7%), Consumer Discretionary (-8%), and Financials (-11%). By comparison, the S&P 500 is down 5% year to date.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, based in Lebanon, Tennessee, operates roughly 660 Cracker Barrel restaurants and gift shops in 44 states, primarily in the Southeast and the Midwest. It operated 68 Maple Street Biscuit stores at the end of FY25. Founded in 1969, the company has more than 70,000 employees.