I have a bit I do about singing. People love to sing in groups, it’s the thing they actually like about going to church, hardcore shows and culturally appropriate soccer (football) games (matches). The tribalism and sense of community is forged by hundreds of voices coming together as one. It also gives us something to talk about between all the singing.

Most football clubs have a song that becomes their own over time. The song becomes part of the furniture. Sometimes it feels like they sing it constantly. They sing it when the team emerges from the tunnel, they sing it before the opening kickoff, we sing it at the start of the second half, and we sing it after the final whistle and on the long walk back to the train station.

I was lucky enough to sing my club’s song for real once, alone in frigid stadium with tears in my eyes. A song that Meant Something to me but realistically the lyrics were just words. Even as “they” became “we” it was still just a somewhat silly footy anthem, a song to sing because everybody knows the words…until November 1, 20251. Not long after midnight, a song I’ve heard a thousand times drifted to mind and hit me like a ton of bricks.

I’m forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.
They fly so high,
Nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams,
They fade and die.
Fortune’s always hiding,
I’ve looked everywhere,
I’m forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.

For 32 years, fortune hid from the Toronto Blue Jays. Good teams and great teams, bad teams and a whole lot of mediocre ones, none ever got closer to immortality than the 2025 version. Not only were they strong, deep, well-constructed and resilient, fortune found them often. Hiding no more, these Blue Jays made their own luck and did what the moment demanded time after time, reaching dizzying heights. Then the bubble burst, fortune hiding once again.

There is no solace in bromides or assurances that 2025 was the best World Series since whenever. No run expectancy matrices or hit probabilities properly capture the grim realization that they should’ve won but didn’t. Had it but lost it. Flew so high only to fade and die.

And while it’s true that life is more about the journey than the destination, the sense that 2025 Toronto Blue Jays’ journey dumped us off in the middle of nowhere, left to navigate a three mile uphill trek through shit before we arrive home, is hard to escape. “I don’t know how you ever get over that” read one text I received.

Why did this journey end just short of its destination? There is no torment quite like an unanswerable question. What if IKF stretched his lead off third base by a foot or two? Why did he slide? What if Andrés Giménez bunt slashed it two feet to either side of Max Muncy rather than right down his throat? What if Kiké Hernández got there first? What if Jeff Hoffman spiked his slider instead of mixing cement with it? What if Dalton Varsho…[voices trails off to a whisper.]2

We can, and will, debate these points forever. This is a special kind of Monday morning quarterbacking in that this Monday morning will stretch on for the rest of our lives. It’s going to hurt a lot of people for a long time. And that’s okay.

To care is the ultimate repudiation of this cynical moment in history when so many forces want so many of us to feel hopeless, to feel as though there’s little we can do but accept. To feel that it’s better if we simply stop feeling altogether. Retreat to a hardened shell and stay safe from the scary experience of being alive.

To care and care deeply, to let this whole experience get down to our bones, is a victory unto itself. It is that deep, bro. It is so deep that the only hope to mend such a wound is to acknowledge that it will be there forever.

But it will heal and, ideally, we’ll be better for it. Not harder, but more open to it happening again. To marvel at the size and speed with which the Blue Jays community grew. To remain cognizant that no matter the path that brought this fandom, this city, country and Blue Jays diaspora together, it was amazing to be part of something together in a bleak and lonely time. It was easy to get swept away by the power of friendship and it’s natural to want to feel this again soon.

It was hard to believe that they made it to the World Series. It was hard to believe they stood a chance until they won Game 1. It was hard to believe they were coming home up 3-2. It was hard to believe they were leading heading into the ninth.

It’s hard to believe they didn’t win.

It’s hard to believe we’ll ever be here again. But I do.

“It’s hard to believe.”

That’s been my go-to response to friends reaching out this week, offering a balance of well-wishes or excitement. It works because “It’s hard to believe!” is both true and also non-specifically positive enough that it doesn’t require a lot of follow-up.

The Toronto Blue Jays haven’t been my holding pen for sports-related emotions1 of late. From pseudo-professional burnout to local MLB.tv blackout rules and my lack of sea legs mean I watched more Dodgers games2 than Blue Jays games in real time this season. My corporeal form has been inside Progressive Field in Cleveland (1) as many times as I found myself inside the dome over last two years.

That isn’t to say I’m removed from the team and the day-to-day. But for a long time, I found it much easier to wrap yourself in a security blanket of ironic detachment, to arm myself with an analytic forcefield designed to keep out any unwanted affinity.

It’s easier to believe “Max Scherzer won’t pitch this series because they don’t think his stuff is good enough anymore” than it is to believe he’ll come out and shove. It’s easy to believe Ernie Clement and his fellow at-bat grinding, slap hitting utility brethren will stop hitting tomorrow because you swear the clock’s been stuck at two minutes to midnight and regression waits for no man.

It was (very) easy to believe the Yankees would find a way to crush Blue Jays dreams and it was easy to believe the Mariners pitching staff would make it impossible for Toronto to win the series at all, let alone come back time and again.

It’s hard to believe they let game 1 of the ALCS slip and they’d live to tell the tale. It’s hard to believe they’d come back from two games down, from losing positions in what seemed like every game of the series. It’s hard to believe Vladimir Guerrero Jr got better when the lights got brightest. It’s hard to believe George Springer can walk at all, let alone with an entire country’s hopes and dreams on his back.

No matter how many comebacks or upsets or improbable performances from young and old, big moments from players up and down the lineup, times where it felt like the whole house of cards would crash down only to hold, it’s always hard to believe the next one will arrive on time.

It’s hard to learn new things. It’s hard to accept that what works for the 162-games-in-180-days grind is different from what works in October. It’s hard to believe in magic when your default view is “it’s not magic.”

But because it’s hard, that’s what makes it so much sweeter. That’s what makes a miserable month of true joy worthwhile. It’s what makes the best parts of life worth doing: because they’re hard, not because they’re easy.

It’s hard to believe unless you want to, unless you’re willing to permit yourself a moment of vulnerability. It’s hard to believe in the good when every moment of every day seems determined to show you how the bad comes out on top every time.

It’s hard to believe but we should. I must.

And again, on the dawn of the World Series, it’s easy to waver. It’s hard to believe that the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays stand a chance against the winners of not only the most recent World Series but 11 of the last 12 NL West titles, most recent Transaction Seasons, and two rounds of “Can You Sign This Japanese Guy?” contested head-to-head with the local nine.

It’s hard to believe the Blue Jays can beat the Dodgers. It’s easy to dismiss their chances and toss off a bad Shannon Sharpe “Dodgers in five” meme before going about your day. It’s easy to feel like they need to come from behind before a pitch is thrown. It’s hard to believe good vibes and good fundies can stop hedge fund excellence.

But we do. I do. They can. We must.

It’s hard to believe they’re here but they are. Four more wins and they’re somewhere else entirely. Today, they’re unforgettable. Four more wins and they’re immortal. Do you believe?

Grab the new Mil-Spec record

The ideas central to world’s most popular sports are pretty simple. Take this object and put it over there. Each game offers its own novel spin on this straightforward concept: put object in net…but don’t use your hands. Put object in net…but net is up high. Move object over line, use hands or feet, but only sometimes.

Baseball’s rules are arcane. The origins are simple enough but they game evolved over time, usually because some devious bastard conceived an ingenious new way to cheat. It became a pastoral secret handshake with a colourful lexicon all its own, a game full of subtlety and nuance. Baseball’s turn-based nature creates innumerable moments requiring strategy and intricately shared situational awareness passed through generations.

At least it used to be, until eager beancounters put a McKinseyian spin on Earl Weaver’s famous words and turned the entire sport on its head.

At the Major League level today, baseball is about as subtle as a video on the Hub1: Big swings, big velo, big flies. Hit the ball over the fence or blow your elbow into 10000 pieces trying. And then, when you’ve exhausted all your attempts to hit home runs, do everything in your power to prevent the other team from returning the favour when it’s their turn.

Hit lots, give up few. Seems simple. Does it work like that? Here are the top three teams in baseball for home run differential (home runs hit minus home runs allowed) this season:

1. New York Yankees (1st in AL East, best record in baseball)

2. Baltimore Orioles (2nd in AL East)

3. Philadelphia Phillies (1st in NL East, best record in the National League)

Last year, the World Series champion Texas Rangers2 finished fifth by this metric. Atlanta ranked first, they won 104 games. The Dodgers ranked third, they won 100. How did Tampa Bay win 99 games in the AL East while running a minuscule payroll? Not by bunts and hit and runs, that’s for sure. Their +53 differential ranked second in baseball.

It’s a crude measure3 but it perfectly encapsulates what’s gone wrong with the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays. They don’t hit nearly enough home runs but they give them up in bunches. So far this year, it’s 25 more allowed than hit. Only two teams are worse, one of which might lose 120 games.

It’s a bad place to be and an indictment of how the team is a) built and b) developed, especially after the aforementioned Orioles come into town and hit four home runs in what we’re told is a pitcher's park.

Too many Blue Jays’ hitters simply can’t (or haven’t) hit for enough power while the pitchers keep serving them up by the hatful. Even the best defensive team in baseball (which the Blue Jays almost certainly are) cannot prevent runs if the balls do not land in the field of play.

Last season, the Blue Jays allowed 10 more home runs than they hit. In 2022, they were +20 and in 2021? +53 - the third best mark in the league.

It’s not unfair to suggest the front office went too far in one direction, overcorrecting because One Bad Thing Happened Once. Now they’re set up to defend, investing not just in their defense but in a bullpen that’s spent all of 2024 getting shelled.

Is it too late to salvage this season? Probably. Relievers are a volatile bunch as a rule and the Jays’ pen has been so bad you can’t help but assume some positive regression is on its way. But the offense? That’s a significant question mark.

Before the now-completed stretch against some of baseball’s dredges, I suggested on the radio that hitting more home runs than they allowed would be nice to see. And guess what? They failed to do even that. 13 games, 13 home runs for, 13 home runs against.

Could a trade or two rejuvenate the Jays’ offense? Does it feel like this club, the one desperate to get Daniel Vogelbach’s bat in the lineup, is one trade away from an offensive explosion?

For perspective, the 2015 Blue Jays finished the season having hit 59 more home runs than they allowed. At the end of July, when the front office looked at their underlying numbers and saw a team worthy of a trade deadline push, they were 27 homers to the good, a much more stable base upon which to build.

It’s easy to throw this at the feet of Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette but that’s only because it’s mostly their fault. Development isn’t linear and such but the franchise cornerstones haven’t produced at a level consistent with the superstardom that seemed very much in reach when the club bought defense because they felt the talent on hand could hold up their end of the offensive bargain.

Whether or not the current iteration of the Blue Jays should continue in its current form is another question for another day4, but the what Blue Jays are doing now isn’t enough. They need more offense and pitchers who can keep the ball in the ballpark. Addressing one of those problems is doable, but both at the same time, in season? That’s a facelift requiring more than a little hyperization, I fear.

I saw video recently that featured Seth Rogen explaining the difference between “plot” and “story.” It’s a few years old but it focuses on how the plot of Superbad follows the comedic misadventures of three unfuckable nerds and the lengths they’re willing to go in the pursuit of sexual conquest.

While they ultimately fail at the “doing sex” part of their mission, the movie succeeds by revealing the pursuit itself to be unimportant. It’s a movie about growth, friendship and so much more. The real pussy hunt was the relationships forged along the way.

Rogen describes “luring them in with the plot but then giving them story.” I can’t think of a better way to describe the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays.

These things are undeniably true:

• the Blue Jays are 10 games over .500

• They have the 8th best record in baseball, playing in the toughest division

• Theirs is the 7th best offense by wRC+ and the best defense by Defensive Runs Saved

• They are projected to have the 5th best record during the remaining ~60 games

• By ZiPS, they have the 4th or 5th best odds to win the World Series

That is the plot of the Jays season to date. They are undoubtably one of the best built teams in baseball. The lineup is deep and more balanced than in previous seasons. The bullpen is improved, the defense exemplary. The rotation features four starters with ERAs below 4.00.

The talent, the obvious strength of the team, the record and the playoff odds are the plot. That this season already feels like a failure is the story.

As I observe the Blue Jays — from a distance for the first time in 15 years — it feels like they have no chance of winning the World Series this year. None. Zero. They are Not It.

The situational futility is certainly to blame, as is the dire record against teams in their division/other teams in the AL Wild Card hunt. Blame the Rays hot start or the Orioles hot hot heat. Blame Alek Manoah’s instantaneous regression-cum-decline or Kevin Gausman’s bullshit luck. Blame Alejandro Kirk’s one good skill deserting him. Or, to be more succinct, just blame Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays on Instagram: “The Home Run King 🏆 #PLAKATA 💥”

July 11, 2023

As Stoeten so accurately points out, the 2023 Blue Jays are Vlad and he is them. Vlad’s fame, his stature within the game and obvious talent is the plot. That he has hit fewer home runs than Issac Paredes and has produced lower wRC+ than Justin Turner is the story.

It’s not all Vlad Jr but his shortcomings, such as they are, provide an adequate receptacle for all the frustrations with how these Blue Jays have performed to date. He’s not bad but he should be better. It’s clear that he can do it and hell, it’s not like he hasn’t done it before. But he’s not doing it now and it doesn’t feel like he ever really will.

Of course, he could yet go Main Character mode, rediscover the form of 2021 with the team on his back and be the hero forever. A lovely idea. Instead I look at him and see the Face of The Franchise, which says so much (not all of it good.)

They don’t award bonus cool guy points for being first to say “it’s over” about one of the 29 teams that fails to win the World Series in a given year. And this team could yet surprise! They could go on a run, the underperformers could get hot and then we’ll all watch the wins start to roll in. Hell, they could fuck around and actually win the World Series! There exists abundant data to debunk my doomsaying, the most unambiguous statistic reading “games remaining: 62.”

Maybe some as-yet-unseen plot twists will unlock a more profound version of this story. But it feels like a fairy tale when confronted with the maddening excellence-flavoured mediocrity that has been the first 100 games of the season. Too much plot, not enough story. Better hurry, there’s time but never as much as you think.

Ever the enigma, Alejandro Kirk’s 2023 season is off to an unusual start. One of the most conspicuous players in the big leagues is conspicuous by his absence at Blue Jays’ Spring Training camp in Dunedin.

The opening salvo of L’Affair Alejandro was put to rest before the calendar turned to March, as Kirk is officially out of the World Baseball Classic with his baby arriving soon after the announcement.

Mike Wilner@Wilnerness

On the Alejandro Kirk watch - John Schneider tells us that there's still no Baby Kirk, but that #Bluejays have dispatched a couple of coaches, Luis Hurtado and Jose Mayorga, and some strength/conditioning coaches to work with him until he comes to camp. No WBC for Kirk.

5:53 PM · Feb 27, 2023

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5 Reposts · 141 Likes

As lukewarm late February soup of the day, Kirk’s absence was thin gruel. Whenever he arrives in Dunedin, so begins a fascinating season — one crucial to any success the 2023 Blue Jays might hope to achieve.

When I think about Kirk, two things come to mind. He is really, really good at two aspects of the game: he squares up the baseball and he frames the low strike. A gross oversimplification? Perhaps! But, then again, maybe it isn’t…

Not only is it a gross oversimplification, it also probably doesn’t matter!

The first of those two key skills outlined above is so integral to success at the big league level that just about every other thing a baseball player does can be considered secondary.

When we add Kirk’s stunning command of the strike zone, which allowed him to rank as one of only eight players to walk more than he struck out in 2022, you have a very good batter, one welcome in any lineup across baseball but the 2023 Blue Jays order in particular.

Kaitlyn McGrath@kaitlyncmcgrath

Kirk should be allowed to call his own balls and strikes

2:50 AM · Jun 22, 2022

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20 Reposts · 370 Likes

Secondly: Kirk is a strong all-around defensive catcher. His framing at the bottom of the strike zone is elite but all his skills rate well according to advanced metrics like those found at Baseball Prospectus. Framing might have diminishing returns in coming years, the Blue Jays are attempting to win the World Series in 2023, not the Marginal Surplus Value Olympics of 2025, so let’s take the Ws where they come.

On the other side of the ledger, Kirk’s base running stands in stark contrast to his elite skills. On the base paths Kirk is truly terrible. He’s among the worst in baseball at the tender age of 24 and he’s likely only going to get worse. He doesn’t run into outs but he rarely takes the extra base while also hitting into more than his share of double plays. That’s a bad combination that feels worse because of the, uh, optics of the young catcher rumbling around the base paths.

That he puts the ball in play so often further complicates this issue, as does his strong walk rate. Kirk is forced to become a baserunner very often, perhaps too often. Given the the club’s renewed emphasis on base aggression and the 💫 exciting✨ new dimensions of the Rogers Centre, bad or ineffective base running will only stand out more.

Kirk isn’t a serious home run threat which only exacerbates the shortcomings with his legs. It puts a lot of pressure on his batted ball variance, which is no way to live. Home runs are the most direct path to scoring runs and it’s a worthwhile debate to consider just how many hits and walks you’d trade off for a few extra round trippers, if you had the choice.

These shortcomings are real. The questions about how this aspect of his skillset will drag down his overall value as a ball player are legitimate, especially when forecasting his age 27-30 seasons. But they are more future concerns rather than obstacles in the here and now.

The Blue Jays front office have taken an aggressive “don’t waste your bullets” approach with Kirk from day one. Let him hit until he can’t, catch until he can’t and help the team until he can’t. Who cares about the mythical Cather Of The Future? The 4 WAR catcher of right fucking now, one who partners lovely with your other every day quality catcher is staring you in the face. Win today’s game, let somebody else worry about paying the bills in 2028.

For me, it’s an example of an “analyst” (me1, in this case) searching —desperately — for a flaw to rationalize my own lack of ease with Kirk’s unconventional skillset, and why I was mentally including Kirk in every half-baked trade idea over the last 10 months. It is me missing the forest for the trees.

Alejandro Kirk is a very good hitter and good baseball player on balance. He makes the 2023 Blue Jays much better than Gabriel Moreno might’ve, which is why the Blue Jays are patiently waiting for Kirk to arrive to camp while the Arizona Diamondbacks are patiently waiting to learn what kind of big leaguer Moreno might become.

The answer to what Kirk will mean to the 2023 Blue Jays won’t be found in a Fangraphs leaderboard and no attempt to glean special meaning from statcast hieroglyphics will unveil his future. A focus on his present feels better and is an example of growth for us all.2 Dreaming on how a big league player can help your chosen team win a World Series is a lot more fun than playing pump-and-dump schemes with arb-eligible players to keep the wage bill down.

Perhaps the present will be as Mike Wilner suggested when I was a guest on his podcast: less Kirk means more for the Blue Jays. Keep him fresher, use him in an even more optimized way and look for opportunities to get the most out of his abundant skills whenever you can.

How this round peg fits into one of baseball’s squarest holes3 is one of the storylines to watch in 2023. Appreciating what he does rather than pointing out what he doesn't gets my full attention this season. I'm excited to see how he takes this latest opportunity to prove me wrong again.