Reproduction Materials for: Anthropogenic Climate Change Has Slowed Global Agricultural Productivity Growth

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Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel; Ault, Toby R.; Carrillo, Carlos M.; Chambers, Robert G.; Lobell, David, 2025, "Reproduction Materials for: Anthropogenic Climate Change Has Slowed Global Agricultural Productivity Growth", https://doi.org/10.6077/PFSD-0V93, CCSS Data Repository, V3
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PI-Provided Abstract: Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21 since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of 26-34) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.
Subject Agricultural Sciences; Earth and Environmental Sciences; Social Sciences
Keyword Agricultural economics, Agricultural production, Climate change
Related Publication Is Supplement To: Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, Ault, Toby R., Carrillo, Carlos M., et al. "Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth." Nature Climate Change Volume 11 Issue April 2021 (2021-04-01): 306-312doi: 10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1blicationIDNumber1
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R2-2020-ORTIZBOBEA-1.zip
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R2-2021-ORTIZBOBEA-1.zip
Shapefile as ZIP Archive - 7.8 GB
Published May 28, 2025
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MD5: ba5ccf2336afec1d4e4d25166721c899
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