Abstract
We analyze the temporal evolution of accumulated hospitalization cases due to COVID-19 in Belgium. The increase of hospitalization cases is consistent with an initial exponential phase, and a subsequent power law growth. For the latter, we estimate a power law exponent of ≈ 2.2, which is consistent with growth kinetics of COVID-19 in China and indicative of the underlying small world network structure of the epidemic. Finally, we fit an SIR-X model to the experimental data and estimate the effect of containment policies in comparison to their effect in China. This model suggests that the base reproduction rate has been significantly reduced, but that the number of susceptible individuals that is isolated from infection is very small. Based on the SIR-X model fit, we analyze the COVID-19 mortality and the number of patients requiring ICU treatment over time.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
No external funding was received for this work.
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
All data is publicly available and can be obtained from the Belgian platform for infectious diseases (epidemio). All analysis code is available on github.
