Abstract
Background In December 2019, an outbreak of new type of coronavirus named COVID-19 occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. In a very short time, this virus spread rapidly over China, greatly threatening public health and economic development. The Chinese government acted quickly and implemented a series of strategies to prevent diffusion of this disease. We therefore sought to evaluate the effects of these Chinese strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19.
Methods From the data of cumulative confirmed cases from provincial Health Commission websites of China, we performed model fitting and calculated the growth speed of cumulative confirmed patients. We further analyzed the time when this growth speed, the rate of the number of new cases, reached its maximum (Speedmax). Comparing different times to Speedmax of different areas in China, we calculated the dates at which the growth speed began to decline in different areas. Also, The number of plateaus were analyzed.
Results The quartic model showed the best fit. For almost all areas in mainland China, the speed of infections reached Speedmax and began to decline within 14 days; exceptions were Hebei, Heilongjiang, Hainan, Guizhou, and Hubei. The number of plateaus was significantly correlated with the emigration index. However, the distance from other areas to Hubei and the number of plateaus had little influence on when a province or area arrived at Speedmax. Once strict intervention strategies were implemented, diffusion and deterioration of COVID-19 were inhibited quickly and effectively over China.
Conclusion Our study suggests that Chinese strategies are highly effective on controlling the diffusion and deterioration of the novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. These strategies supply experience and guidelines for other countries to control the COVID-19 epidemic.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
no external funding was received.
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
All data has been supplied in the manuscript.
