Abstract
An outbreak of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) was first diagnosed in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and then spread rapidly to other regions. We collected the time series data of the cumulative number of confirmed infected, dead, and cured cases from the health commissions in 31 provinces in mainland China. A descriptive model in a logistic form was formulated to infer the intrinsic epidemic rules of COVID-19, which illustrates robustness spatially and temporally. Our model is robust (R2>0.95) to depict the intrinsic growth rule for the cumulative number of confirmed infected, dead, and cured cases in 31 provinces in mainland China. Furthermore, we compared the intrinsic epidemic rules of COVID-19 in Hubei with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Beijing, which was obtained from the Ministry of Public Health of China in 2003. We found that the infected case is the earliest to be saturated and has the lowest semi-saturation period compared with deaths and cured cases for both COVID-19 and SARS. All the three types of SARS cases are later to saturate and have longer semi-saturation period than that of COVID-19. Despite the virus caused SARS (SARS-CoV) and the virus caused COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) are homologous, the duration of the outbreak would be shorter for COVID-19.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This study is sponsored by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1508903), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41621061) and the support of International Center for Collaborative Research on Disaster Risk Reduction (ICCR-DRR).
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
Data is obtained from the open website of the health commissions in 31 provinces in mainland China
