Axiom

Inspiration

Prediction markets like Polymarket have billions in trading volume, but most traders face three critical problems:

1. No mathematical rigor - They guess position sizes instead of calculating optimal allocations
2. Can't prove foresight - No way to verify they predicted correctly before the event
3. Isolated decision-making - Can't benefit from other traders' mathematical insights

The "Aha" moment: What if we could apply the same quantitative techniques used by hedge funds (Kelly Criterion) to prediction markets, make it accessible to everyone, AND create blockchain proof that traders calculated their edge beforehand?

Axiom was born from this vision: Transform prediction market trading from gambling into a mathematically rigorous, socially verifiable discipline. Axiom is a Proof of Intelligence engine. There are 2-sides to this project, the calculator that calculates your edge and optimal betting size and mint that prediction. The social platform allows you to view different users predictions and fractionally own their minted NFTs

What it does

Axiom is a dual-platform dApp with two powerful sides:

🧮 Side 1: Intelligence Calculator

• Fetches market data from Polymarket's API for Bitcoin > $100k and Ethereum > $4k
• Calculates optimal position sizes using the Kelly Criterion formula
• Portfolio optimization - Allocates capital across multiple uncorrelated markets simultaneously
• Real-time edge calculation - Shows exactly when you have a mathematical advantage
• NFT minting - Mint your prediction as an ERC-721 token on Base with immutable timestamp

🌐 Side 2: Social Oracle Platform

• Live blockchain feed - View predictions from all users in real-time
• data - Every prediction is read directly from our smart contract on Base Sepolia
• User profiles - Click any predictor to see their history and track record
• Fractional ownership (planned) - Invest in other traders' predictions by buying shares of their NFTs
• Reputation system - Build credibility through accurate, proven predictions

How we built it

• Frontend: Next.js 14 (App Router) + TypeScript + Tailwind CSS
• Blockchain: Base Sepolia (Testnet)
• Web3 Integration: @coinbase/onchainkit for seamless wallet UX
• Contract Interaction: wagmi + viem for type-safe blockchain calls
• Data Layer: Polymarket's public API with React Query caching
• Icons: lucide-react for beautiful, consistent UI #Portfolio Optimization Engine (utils/kellyMath.ts)**
• Implemented binary Kelly Criterion: f* = (p - C) / (1 - C)
• Independent calculations for uncorrelated markets
• Proportional scaling when total allocation exceeds 100% (conservative approach)
• Type-safe TypeScript interfaces for all calculations

Challenges we ran into

Accomplishments that we're proud of

What we learned

What's next for Axiom

1. Fractional NFT Ownership 🎯

• Allow users to buy "shares" of other traders' prediction NFTs
• Implement ERC-1155 for fungible shares
• Profit sharing when predictions resolve correctly

2. Mainnet Deployment 🚀

• Deploy to Base L2 (mainnet)
• Real money predictions with actual Polymarket markets
• Production API keys and monitoring

3. More Markets 📊

• Support 10+ Polymarket markets
• Auto-discover trending markets
• Category filters (Crypto, Politics, Sports, etc.)

4. Reputation & Leaderboards 🏆

• Track accuracy over time
• Calculate Brier scores
• Public leaderboards by category
• Verified trader badges

5. Advanced Portfolio Tools 📈

• Correlation analysis between markets
• Risk/reward optimization
• Historical backtesting
• Position tracking dashboard

6. Social Features 💬

• Follow top predictors
• Copy trading (auto-mint when they mint)
• Discussion threads per prediction

7. Analytics Dashboard 📊

• Personal P&L tracking
• Win rate by market category
• Edge distribution charts
• ROI calculator

Built With

• typescript