Hello Everyone!

The common think has turned against the Halving Cycles Theory and 4 year cycle, as they give every excuse as to why it will fail.

And yet, it remains right on track as it has since the beginning of Bitcoin’s price history.

In this week’s Friday Video Update, we’ll talk about psychology, the Halving Cycles Theory, and some NUPL variations that paint the picture of our current position.

Enjoy!

Summary (AI-Generated)

• Current Market Expectations and Cycle Analysis

  • Anticipation of a bear market aligned with the traditional four-year cycle and halving cycles theory.

  • Supported by overheated data indicating cycle tops reached three times: March 2024, January 2025 (corrected from last year), and October-August 2025.

  • Bearish corrections observed, such as breaking the super trend indicator.

• Psychological Observations at Market Lows

  • Psychology at the current low differs significantly from past lows, where narratives included expectations of recessions, returns to $15,000, or altcoins dying.

  • In real-time during past lows (e.g., September 2023 at $25,000), influencers predicted recessions, black swan crashes, and lower prices without foreknowledge of future rallies to $125,000 in October 2025.

  • Current sentiment is overly bullish, with claims that the bottom is in, no more bear markets, the four-year cycle is obsolete, a business liquidity cycle is dominant, and prices will rise indefinitely.

  • This optimism sounds unrealistic and contrasts with historical patterns where similar overconfidence preceded corrections.

• Historical Context and Hindsight Bias

  • During the 2022 bear market, expectations were for surpassing $100,000, but reality led to a bottom in November 2022 amid calls for $10,000-$12,000 and recessions.

  • Suggestions at that time that the bear market was over faced opposition due to macro concerns.

  • In hindsight, bottoms appear obvious, but in the moment, the opposite seems guaranteed, leading to mass surprise when predictable outcomes occur.

  • Current bullish consensus mirrors past tops, suggesting data points to a traditional bear market despite popular denial.

• Halving Cycles Theory Using Fibonacci Timeframes

  • Analysis uses Fibonacci zones based on lows from November 28, 2010 (point zero) to November 28, 2014 (point one).

  • Zones for key highs: first early top (0.13-0.17), second early top, first cycle top, and final cycle top, consistent in even integers across cycles (e.g., 1.13-1.17, 2.13-2.17).

  • All major points in the last cycle (cycle bottom, early tops, cycle tops) aligned within expected zones, marked by dots on charts.

  • Despite consistency, public expectations deviate, which may increase the likelihood of the cycle playing out as predicted.

  • Additional echo highs (hollow dots) and bear market lows expected: first low, second low, and cycle bottom yet to occur.

• Projected Future Dates

  • Next cycle bottom: November to January 2027.

  • First early top: June to July 2027.

  • Second early top: April to August 2028.

  • First cycle top: January to June 2029.

  • Final cycle top: October to December 2029.

  • Expectations for similarities with nuances and deviations, as in every cycle, reinforced by sine waves and key points in halving cycles theory.

• Data Indicators for Bottoms

  • Logarithmic NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss on logarithmic scale): Watches for crossing below -20.15% for cycle bottoms; accurate in past cycles (October 2011, January/August 2015).

  • Current position far from bottom levels, similar to March 2022, April 2018, May 2014; projects bottom in November-January 2027.

  • Regular NUPL with Fibonacci ratios: Awaits return below 0.382 level for cycle bottoms; consistent across cycles, accurately identified October-December 2022 bottom.

  • Indicators show data is not at cycle bottom levels, contradicting claims of the current low being the bottom.

• Diminishing Effects on Cycle Metrics

  • Many traditional cycle top metrics fail due to diminishing effect, where subsequent tops achieve lower levels than previous cycles (dashed line on charts).

  • Bearish divergence or reduced pressure at cycle top points: March 2024, November 2024, October-August 2025.

  • This creates opportunities but requires caution against manipulated data and psychology.

• Final Advice and Outlook

  • Importance of sticking with decisions, especially after taking profits (e.g., from $16.5K to $112.5K), as risk-reward favors cycles theory and data.

  • New all-time highs would not invalidate prior gains.

  • Warning against getting caught in common traps; encouragement to be patient and careful amid manipulation.