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Oil Shock Sends Many Global Yields Surging
Yields have risen to 15yr highs in many economies, creating a further economic tightening on top of the erosion of real spending power, but the weakness…
 • Bob Elliott
Week Ahead 2026.03.29
Last week markets woke up to the deepening challenges from the extended oil shock. The question this week is whether growth priced in will finally…
 • Bob Elliott
Thematic Portfolio Update: From Oil Shock to Growth Shock
While markets have sold off in response to the oil shock, there has been little decline in the macro pricing of growth ahead so far. Fading that looks…
 • Bob Elliott
Are Markets Underpricing Conflict Tail Risk?
If the conflict extends to the summer, the global economy will face sharply higher oil prices. Financial market pricing remains pretty sanguine even as…
 • Bob Elliott
Counting The Cushion
Sanctions relief and SPR draws have offset 40% of lost production, but it won’t be long until those cushions are exhausted. If Hormuz isn’t open by…
 • Bob Elliott
Consumers Hanging In There (For Now)
Timely measures of household spending suggest continued pretty good demand through the first couple weeks of the month, suggesting a swift resolution…
 • Bob Elliott
The Global Stagflationary Squeeze
Global flash PMIs give us an early read on the macro pressure from the oil shock. It's an ugly sight with inflation spiking and the demand outlook…
 • Bob Elliott
Nonconsensus
Nonconsensus
A daily look into the thinking of veteran macro investor Bob Elliott as he navigates some of the most challenging market dynamics he's seen over his career.
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Robin J Brooks
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