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How banned AI chips end up in China
AI chips and servers reach China through distribution chains in which each seller vets only its direct customers, and no one is on the hook for what…
May 18 • Erich Grunewald
Hantavirus won't be the next COVID
A forecaster's breakdown of the Hondius cruise ship outbreak
May 11 • Peter Wildeford
Mythos is just the beginning
If you were waiting for a sign that superintelligence is coming, this is it
Apr 20 • Peter Wildeford
China Is Reverse-Engineering America’s Best AI Models
How AI distillation attacks risk extracting US frontier AI at scale
Mar 16 • Peter Wildeford and Theo Bearman
The Pentagon's War on Anthropic
The Pentagon has a legitimate principle, and a terrible strategy for enforcing it
Feb 27 • Peter Wildeford
The case for paying whistleblowers to report on export violations
A bipartisan, bicameral bill would apply the SEC’s successful whistleblower incentive model to export enforcement
Jan 29 • Erich Grunewald
Maduro has been captured. What's next?
The operation was flawless. What comes next is anyone's guess.
Jan 3 • Peter Wildeford
My template for a quarterly review + plan
A free Google doc template for the system I actually use
Dec 22, 2025 • Peter Wildeford
The Power Law
The Power Law
Join top forecaster Peter Wildeford as he forecasts our fast paced future and discusses AI, national security, innovation, emerging technology, and the powers - real and metaphorical - that shape our world.
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