₿itcoin is at yet another decision point and there is a bull case and a bear case. Lets put them down for the record and then see which happens.

Ultimately we have reached a local top after testing the All Time High. Bitcoin is now in a correction, so the question is when is the correction complete and what are the key points to look at.

The correction is either just starting with further downside (🐻), or it is already complete and we are going up (🐂).

We are in a macro bull market. This question explores what happens over the next few days.

First, the big picture:

From the beginning:

Clearly bullish with our position being in the 5th wave of wave 5, which should be very exciting.

🐻The Bear Case

The Bear case recognizes the previous high at $68.9k as the end of the five wave move up from $39.6k.

Bitcoin is then in a correction and as the count is a 1,2, it could typically retrace to the 0.618 at $48.4k.

More likely would be some sort of a double bottom at around $54k.

From an Ichi Moku perspective, the daily is still trending up which supports the argument that we are still in a macro bullish uptrend. However, the equilibrium line (the base line (kijun sen)) is below at around $57k.

On the 4h chart, price has descended through the cloud and is testing the baseline from below. Typically this would lead to further downward price action.

If the ABC correction is in place, then targets on the fib-extension would be at $59.3k (already hit), $56.7k and $55k.

🐂The Bull Case

An alternative Bullish count is that the impulse wave up from the 2 has not completed but has found the end of wave 3, which means the correction is a smaller wave 4.

The wave 3 price target of 3.618 extension of wave 1 is a common bullish target.

The wave 4 price target of 0.618 extension of the corrective wave a is a common bullish target, which would indicate that the correction is complete.

The Wave 5 target sits at $75k

The Daily Stoch RSI has reset which is bullish.

From an Ichi Moku perspective, the 1 hour has blasted through the red cloud and is finding support on top.

The 4 hour has closed above the baseline which is bullish (and is often used as a trigger to close a short position).

The daily remains in a bullish uptrend with all features above the cloud, and the lagging line (the Chikou Span), in the clear (typically when that enters price it signals a decision point, and most often a reversal, which is not the case here).

I hope you found this useful. Either scenario could play out but on the whole we are in a bull market so good luck.

NTA, DYOR.