The world economy as seen by the IMF.
The World Economic Outlook is the International Monetary Fund's flagship forecast publication, covering nearly 200 countries. This tracker compiles past editions, showing how the IMF's forecasts evolved over time — where they converged, where they missed, and how estimates were revised as new data arrived.
Track forecasts by country and indicator
The solid line is the latest actual data from the WEO and the dashed line is the latest forecast. Diamonds are same-year nowcasts from each April. Use the legend to overlay vintage WEO forecasts by time horizon.
About the WEO
The World Economic Outlook is the IMF's flagship forecast publication, covering GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balances, current account balances, and more for nearly every country. Full editions are published in April and October, with interim updates in January and July. This tracker uses the two main editions; some academic research also incorporates the quarterly updates.
Each edition contains forecasts extending 5–6 years forward. As the forecast horizon shrinks, estimates generally converge toward the actual outcome—but not always. The IMF's Independent Evaluation Office found systematic optimism bias during recessions. Research by Loungani et al. (2018) showed the “record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.” A 2025 IMF working paper found forecasts overreact to good news while responding more cautiously to bad news.
By overlaying all editions, you can see these patterns directly—the cloud of dots reveals where forecasts converged or diverged, and how the latest estimates compare to historical predictions.
Indicator Glossary
| Code | Name | Units | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| NGDP_RPCH | Real GDP Growth | % change | Year-over-year change in inflation-adjusted GDP. The broadest measure of economic growth. |
| BCA_NGDPD | Current Account Balance | % of GDP | Net flow of goods, services, and transfers with the rest of the world. Negative = deficit. |
| PCPIPCH | CPI Inflation | % change | Year-over-year change in consumer prices. |
| GGXWDG_NGDP | Government Debt | % of GDP | Gross general government debt relative to GDP. |
| GGXCNL_NGDP | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP | General government net lending/borrowing. Negative = deficit. |
| GGSB_NPGDP | Structural Fiscal Balance | % of potential GDP | Cyclically adjusted fiscal balance. Strips out business-cycle effects to show the underlying fiscal position. Available for ~30 advanced economies. Used in Blanchard & Leigh (2013). |
| NID_NGDP | Investment | % of GDP | Total investment (gross capital formation) as a share of GDP. |
| NGAP_NPGDP | Output Gap | % of potential GDP | How far GDP is above or below estimated potential. Negative = slack. Available for ~30 advanced economies. |
| PPPSH | PPP Share of World GDP | % | Country's share of global GDP measured at purchasing power parity. Shows the shifting weight of economies over time. |
| LUR | Unemployment Rate | % of labor force | Share of the labor force that is unemployed. Not available for all countries. |
Countries Included (196)
Advanced Economies (41)
Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong SAR, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macao SAR, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Puerto Rico, San Marino, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan Province of China, United Kingdom, United States
Emerging & Developing Asia (30)
Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Nepal, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Vietnam
Emerging & Developing Europe (15)
Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Hungary, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine
Latin America & Caribbean (33)
Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Aruba, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela
Middle East & Central Asia (32)
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Kyrgyz Republic, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, West Bank and Gaza, Yemen
Sub-Saharan Africa (45)
Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, South Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Data Download
Download the full dataset for your own analysis, or the context file for use with an AI coding assistant.
- imfweo-data.csv.gz — 21 indicators, 73 vintages (1990–2026), 196 countries
- imfweo-context.md — dataset documentation and forecast evaluation methods
Further Reading
- IEO: IMF Forecasts — Process, Quality, and Country Perspectives (2014)
- An, Jalles & Loungani: How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? (2018)
- Celasun et al.: An Evaluation of WEO Growth Forecasts 2004–17 (2021)
- Aktug & Rezghi: Evidence of Asymmetry in WEO Forecasts (2025)
- Hadzi-Vaskov et al.: Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions (2021)
- Koch & Noureldin: How We Missed the Inflation Surge (2023)
- Ismail, Perrelli & Yang: Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts (2020)
- IMF API Guide — Working with WEO Data
- Source code on GitHub