In my previous lecture (see: 10: Origins of Money: Insufficiency of Gold), I explained how money must be created in correspondence to the needs of the economy. This means that any type of commodity money (gold/silver/other) is not suitable, since it is fixed in quantity, and cannot be flexibly expanded or contracted. There has been a substantial amount of controversy and discussion of this statement. In this post, I will provide some thought experiments on a simple economy, to explain this more clearly and concretely.
Remote Rural Economy: Consider a simple village economy, where there are ten small landowners, ten shopkeepers, and ten laborers. There are two seasons: planting season and harvesting season. In planting season, landowners need to hire labor, and buy seed and fertilizer from the shopkeeper. If they succeed in doing so, they will be able to produce ten units of wheat in harvesting season. Suppose that everyone needs one unit of wheat every season to survive – but are happy to consume more. We will now consider several different monetary scenarios for this simple village economy.
Rich Man Assumption: There is a rich man in the village who has 25 gold dirhams. Nobody else has any money. Landowners go the rich man to ask for a loan. He gives each of them 2 dirhams as a loan at zero interest – just to keep things simple for the moment. They use one dirham to hire labor, and one dirham to buy required inputs from the shopkeeper. Now all of them are able to plant, irrigate, and do all necessary work for the production of wheat. In harvesting season, they all harvest ten units of wheat, which leads to a total production of 100 units of wheat in the village economy.
Closed Economy Assumption: We assume that the village is remote and cut off from outside world. They cannot export surplus wheat, and they cannot import other goods or money from the outside. This is just to keep the model simple, and make it easier to see what is happening in the model. Adding an external sector, where wheat can be exported, is more realistic, but will not change the results which follow. It just makes it harder to understand what is going on.
Traditional Prices: Come harvest season, there are 100 units of wheat in the economy. To simplify even further, assume that wheat is perishable, and does not last more than two seasons. So, laborers and shopkeepers need to buy two units of wheat, to survive. Each of them earned one gold dirham (from labor, and from sale). To make life easier, assume that one gold dirham buys two units of wheat – say that is the traditional price of wheat. Then each shopkeeper and laborer uses the one dirham he has earned to buy two units of wheat from the landowners. Each landowner earns two units of gold by selling four units of wheat, and is left with a surplus of six units of wheat. He returns the loan of two dirhams to the rich man, and enjoys eating the surplus of six units, growing fat, while the others are thin and lean. Both laborers and shopkeepers must spend all they earn to buy two units of wheat they need to survive. Throughout this model, we are assuming the labor costs one dirham, inputs cause one dirham, and the price of wheat is two units for one dirham. Again, this is to simplify the model. Making prices flexible does not change the result that insufficient money will cause economic recession, but it is much more complicated to show this.
The Outcomes: Landowners will grow fat; by assumption of closed economy, he cannot market the wheat outside the village. But, the Rich Man may become Obese: It is possible for the rich man to buy up the surplus, in which case the landowner will keep two units for himself, and still have four units to sell to the rich man. The rich man will buy 40 units of surplus from the ten landowners, and grow enormously fat. In this scenario, the landowners will end up with two gold dirhams, earned from the sale of their four extra units of wheat. Next year, they will not need to borrow money – they will be able to purchase labor, seeds, and fertilizer, using their own gold. If this scenario is repeated, then the rich man will eventually lose all of his gold to the landowners. However, this is because he is charging zero interest. We explore next what happens when the rich man starts charging interest for his loans. It is important to note that exactly same results can be obtained for Musharaka financing. There is no economic difference between Musharaka and Interest if there is complete certainty about the future (of course there is a difference from Shari’a perspective). Economic differences between the two forms of financing arise when there is uncertainty – the harvest might fail. It is in this case that Musharaka is superior to interest.
Interest Based Capitalist Finance. In a capitalist economy, suppose the rich man lends money at interest. The rich man can calculate that the landowner will end up with a surplus of four units, after selling two to laborer and shopkeeper, and keeping two for himself. So, taking advantage of the desperation of the landowner, who will not be able to plant without getting loan, he demands 100% interest. The loan of two units of gold must be repaid by four units of gold. The landowner accepts this loan – what else can he do? Now in harvest season, shopkeeper and laborer pay him one unit of gold to buy two units of wheat. He keeps two units for himself. He returns two dirham he has earned from these sales, and he sells the surplus four units to the rich man earning the additional two dirhams he needs to pay interest. In this scenario, shopkeepers, laborers, and landowners have no surplus – neither gold nor wheat. They end up with zero wealth, which is where they started. The rich man ends up with all his gold back, plus 40 units of surplus wheat. A VERY IMPORTANT note here is that rich man MUST buy the surplus wheat in order to enable the landowners to pay back his interest. Suppose for example that he refuses to buy surplus wheat, refuses to accept payment in kind, and demands payment in gold dirhams. The landowners only have 20 dirhams between them collectively, and they need to pay 40 dirhams, which they simply cannot get – because there is not any more gold in the economy (other than what the rich man has). So in this scenario, the rich man can seize their lands. Maybe they can pool money to save five of them, while allowing the rich man to seize the land of the remaining five. But eventually, the rich man will end up owning the entire village.
The Impossibility of Interest: This simple example illustrates a general feature of interest. Suppose a country borrows foreign currency dollars at interest from outsiders. Regardless of how productive their domestic economy is, it cannot produce additional dollars. This country will always default on the interest payments unless their export earnings can cover the principal and the interest. The model also provides insights about the role of interest. In a zero-interest economy, all of the gold eventually ends up with the producers, who are the landowners. In an interest-based economy, all the produce ends up with the financiers. This division and conflict of interest between financiers and producers is very important to understand modern economics.
Other Variations:There are many different aspects of economics which we can illustrate with this simple model of a village economy. We can explore musharka financing, social cooperation methods, and many other variations on the methods of production. But presently, my interest is only in exploring the role of gold. So we move to the next scenario, where there is insufficient gold.
Insufficient Gold. As long as the rich man has 20 dirhams to lend to the landowners, the economy will function at full potential, and each landowner will be able to produce 10 units of wheat for a total production of 100 units for the village. However, suppose that the rich man is robbed, and has only 10 dirhams left after the robbery. Now, what will happen? Ten landowners will come and ask to borrow 2 dirhams, but he can only lend to five of them, because he only has 10 dirhams left after the robbery. This is a catastrophe for the village – five of the landowners will not be able to produce anything, and will starve to death. Similarly, five of the laborers will not find jobs and starve to death. Five of the shopkeepers will not be able to sell their goods and starve to death. The lucky five, the ones who could get the gold, will produce 10 units each, and total village output will be 50 units. This is what an economic recession is – the output which is produced is less than the potential output that could have been produced if all resources were utilized. The economy had the capability of producing 100 units, and all real resources requires to do so are present. BUT, because of insufficient gold, only 50 units can be produced. This is an economic catastrophe.
Token Money Introduced: The rich man keeps his gold in a vault, which is guarded by his servants. Robbery took place, but nobody really knows how much he has. To prevent a catastrophe, the rich man issues notes, which promise to pay bearer gold on demand. He says to the landowners that gold is risky to carry around, there are robbers, so just keep this paper signed by me, and I will redeem it in gold upon presentation to me – provided it has a proper chain of ownership. That is, if a random stranger shows up with the paper, I will not redeem it. But if the shopkeeper comes to me and says I got this from the landowner by selling him seeds, I will redeem it. This way your gold stays safe with me. Now technically, the rich man can only issue ten IOU’s for the 10 dirhams he has, but suppose that he has learnt about fractional reserve banking. The landowners are desperate to get the gold, because they will starve unless they can buy seeds and hire labor. So all ten landowners accept IOU’s for 2 units of gold and go about their business. The number of IOU’s of the rich man in circulation are 20, but he only has 10 dirhams in his vaults. But, as we have seen earlier, all of the IOU’s will come back to him anyway – just like all the gold came back to him. So, no one will actually ever encash their gold, because the landowner uses it to make purchases and hire labor. Laborers and shopkeepers use their gold to buy wheat. And landowners use their earnings from sales to repay the rich man, with interest.
Fractional Or Zero Reserve: Finally note that in this last scenario, the rich man’s vault may actually contain ZERO gold – no one ever actually encashes their note for gold. All the IOU’s come back to him. So what do we learn from this thought experiment? The key point was to show that the amount of money must vary flexibly with the size of the economy, and gold is not suitable for this purpose. If money is gold only than if the landlord has 2 units, only one landowner will be able to produce. With 4 units, two landowners will produce, rest will die of hunger. Only if we have 20 units of gold in circulation will it be possible to have full employment of all resources. Insufficient money will lead to recession and unemployment in the economy. This is not a hypothetical scenario – real world economic history is chock-full of examples where insufficiency of money led to recessions, depressions, and high levels of unemployment.
Token Money Varies Flexibly With Needs of Economy: Next note that token money solves the problem. If the rich man issues IOU’s to all who ask for loans, then the supply of money expands flexibly to meet the needs of the economy. The IOU’s will exactly match what is needed by the producers. For example, suppose that additional fertile land becomes available so that landowners expand to 20 instead of 10. Now an amount of gold which was sufficient for all would become insufficient for the needs of this expanded economy. However, token money would be able to meet the new expanded needs for money.
Keynesian Economics: The above example shows one of the two central lessons of Keynesian Economics. Suppose there are a 100 villages in the country, so that there are 1000 farmers. Then we need to get them 2000 units of money to ensure that everyone of them can produce. If the money supply is insufficient – only 1000 units of money are available, then half of the farmers will remain unemployed, and will be unable to produce. This is a tragedy, because all the real resources for production are present – we have seeds, land, labor, – but due to a bad monetary system, which could not provide for needs of farmers, production does not take place. It is also possible to show how excess of gold can lead to inflation, just like insufficient gold leads to recession. This is one of the central lessons of Keynesian Economics – the money supply must match the needs of the economy: too little leads to recession, and too mujch leads to inflation. However, this material should be enough to absorb on first round, and more complicated models will be left for later. The main point of this post is to show that no type of commodity money is suitable for the needs of a market economy, because it cannot be expanded or contracted to match the needs of the economy. To be able to flexibly expand money supply to match the needs of a growing economy, some sort of token money is needed. In the above example, we have used IOU’s, but there are many other types of token money which can be created and used for this purpose.
