Is “Die Hard” a Christmas movie?

How we used synthetic market research to settle an annual argument (and accidentally learned how to market seasonal anything)

Every December, humanity splits into three camps around the question of “Is Die Hard a Christmas movie?”:

1. “Obviously yes, it’s basically in Santa’s LinkedIn endorsements”

2. “It’s… Christmas-adjacent”

3. “If no one learns a lesson and hugs, it doesn’t count.”

So we did what any responsible organisation would do: we ran a research study. Not to end the debate forever (nothing can), but to measure the shape of the disagreement and see what people actually mean when they say “Christmas movie”.

Quick refresher: what we mean by “synthetic market research”

A “synthetic market research study” looks and feels like a standard market research study: you define a question, recruit a group, collect responses, and then synthesise what you learned into clear takeaways. The difference is speed and repeatability: you can run a study, learn something useful, then iterate immediately.

What we did

We recruited 100 U.S.-based adults (ages 22–77, mean 46) across various states and common occupations:

Then we asked a simple single question: Do you consider the film “Die Hard” (1988) to be a Christmas movie? (Answer options: Yes, Partly, No.)

The headline result: the world is perfectly split

The results were almost comically symmetrical:

Yes

Partly

No

45

45

10

So the correct answer is: it depends on what you mean by “Christmas movie”. And the most interesting people, analytically speaking, are the “Partly” crowd — because they’re not confused. They’re doing taxonomy.

What people meant by their answers

Team “Yes”: Christmas is on-screen, therefore Christmas

The “Yes” camp tends to cite visible cues: Christmas setting, office party energy, seasonal music, decorations — the film is drenched in December. If the movie is wearing a Santa hat, they’re stamping it “holiday” and moving on.

Team “Partly”: holiday vibe vs holiday spirit

The “Partly” respondents generally accept it as a December rewatch staple — but resist calling it a “true” Christmas film because it’s light on the classic themes: warmth, forgiveness, family reconciliation, miracles, and general emotional cocoa.

This is the useful distinction: setting and soundtrack can create a holiday experience even when the narrative is, fundamentally, “barefoot man solves workplace hostage situation with grit and glass”.

Team “No”: if it doesn’t feel like Christmas, it isn’t

The minority “No” camp prioritises tone and theme over decorations. To them, Christmas is not a backdrop — it’s the point. No moral arc, no mince pies.

Segments we noticed (aka: who argues like this?)

Even with a single question, the responses produced some fun, usable patterns:

• Younger vs older: younger respondents leaned more “Yes” (visual cues win); older respondents leaned more “Partly/No” (theme wins).

• Cultural framing: some respondents used culturally specific rituals and foods as part of their “what counts” criteria, which makes them especially interesting for culturally targeted programming and messaging.

• Hospitality / programming mindset: more pragmatic respondents were happy to slot it into December line-ups as a seasonal engagement play, regardless of sentimental purity.

• Office-scene believers vs theme purists: some treat holiday office-party scenes as decisive proof, while others dismiss them as “Christmas wallpaper”.

The practical takeaway: position it as “holiday action”

The broadest appeal framing is simple: Die Hard is a holiday action staple — heavy on seasonal cues (setting, music, office party), light on traditional Christmas themes (miracle, warmth, forgiveness).

If you’re programming, merchandising, or writing promo copy, the implication is:

• Do lean into the Christmas setting: lights, carols, office-party chaos.

• Do treat it as a December rotation staple, especially for people who want “holiday” without “sentimental”.

• Don’t sell it as a heartwarming family-centred centrepiece. That’s not what it is, and people notice.

One tiny framework you can steal: “vibe vs spirit”

We ended up with a surprisingly reusable classification:

• Visible seasonal cues (setting, music, decor, rituals) drive “Yes”.

• Thematic core (warmth, family, forgiveness, moral arc) drives “No”.

• Vibe + not-spirit lands you in “Partly” — often the most actionable segment.

This framework generalises beyond movies: seasonal retail, limited-edition product drops, holiday campaigns, even “is this a summer drink?” debates.

Small note on data quality (because we’re adults)

A handful of one-word / duplicate-style entries suggested minor data-quality noise — not enough to change the topline split, but enough to remind us to keep guardrails tight.

The follow-on plan is straightforward: dedupe, add attention checks / minimum open-end lengths, and validate with a larger, quota-based nationally representative study (think ~1,000 participants).

Where we’d take it next (if we wanted to make this very serious, very fast)

• Short term: clean the dataset; make follow-ups mandatory; publish a one-page “holiday action staple” guide.

• Medium term: formalise the “vibe vs spirit” framework and automate data-quality checks.

• Validation: run a nationally representative wave and A/B test creative that leans “holiday action” vs “classic Christmas”.

Final verdict

If you’re hoping for a definitive cultural ruling: sorry. The universe has decided this argument must live forever.

But if you want something better — a crisp understanding of why people disagree, and how to message accordingly — the answer is clear: treat Die Hard as a seasonal action staple, and market the vibe, not the virtue. Yippee-ki-yay, and pass the eggnog.

(Read the full report here)