China

Another weak monthly and quarterly data dump from China’s NBS. Real GDP growth rose 4.8% y/y in Q3, a marked slowing on the 5% annual growth pace seen in Q2, but consistent with market expectations. China could still hit its 5% 2025 growth target on the basis of growth in H1. Nominal GDP growth was just 3.7% y/y compared to 3.9% y/y in Q2, yielding an implied price deflator of -1.1% y/y. Industrial production firmed to 6.5% in September from 5.2% y/y in August, with SOE output continuing to underperform shareholding firms at 4.3% y/y compared to 6.6% y/y respectively. Urban fixed asset investment fell 0.5% at an annual rate on a YTD basis, the first negative growth since the pandemic downturn. Private sector investment contracted at an even more pronounced 3.1% rate. Retail trade rose 3% y/y in September compared to 3.4% y/y in August. The real estate climate index fell to 92.8 in September from 93 in August, remaining well below the break-even 100 level.