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I really enjoyed this book a few years ago, and I have come back to offer a review based on my notes at the time and how the insights have settled for me over time. I took away many key concepts for successfully forecasting uncertain events and also some areas I noted for further exploration. Many of the following notes are structured from the authors' insight into the demonstrated practices of repeatedly successful forecasters.
The book mentions repeatedly the importance of measurement for assessment and revising forecasts and programs. Many people simply don't create any metrics of anything when they make unverifiable and chronologically ambiguous declarations.
The book emphasizes the importance of receiving this feedback on predictions that measurement allows, as there is a studied gap between confidence and skill in judgment. We have a tendency to be uninterested in accumulating counterfactuals, but we must know when we fail to learn from it. If forecasts are either not made or not quantified and ambiguous, we can't receive clear feedback, so the thought process that led to the forecasts can't be improved upon. Feedback, however, allows for the psychological trap of hindsight bias. This is that when we know the outcome, that knowledge of the outcome skews our perception of what we thought at the time of the prediction and before we knew the outcome.
The main qualities for successful forecasting are being open-minded, careful, and undertaking self-critical thinking with focus, which is not effortless. Commitment to self-improvement is the strongest predictor of long-term performance in measured forecasting. This can basically be considered as equivalent to the popular concept of grit. Studies show that individuals with fixed mindsets do not pay attention to new information that could improve their future predictions. Similarly, forecasts tend to improve when more probabilistic thinking is embraced rather than fatalistic thinking in regards to the perspective that certain events are inevitable.
A few interesting findings that the authors expand upon in more detail in the book: experience is important to have the tacit knowledge essential to the practice of forecasting, and that grit, or perseverance, towards making great forecasts is three times as important as intelligence.
Practices to undertake when forecasting are to create a breakdown of components to the question that you can distinguish and scrutinize your assumptions; develop backwards thinking as answering the questions of what you would need to know to answer the question, and then making appropriate numerical estimations for those questions; practice developing an outside view, which is starting with an anchored view from past experience of others, at first downplaying the problem's uniqueness; explore other potential views regarding the question; and express all aspects and perspectives into a single number that can be manipulated and updated.
Psychological traps to be aware of discussed in the book include confirmation bias, which is a willingness to seek out information that confirms your hypothesis and not seek out information that may contradict it, which is the opposite of discovering counterfactuals; belief perseverance, also known as cognitive dissonance, in which individuals can be incapable of updating their belief in the face of new evidence by rationalization in order to not have their belief upset; scope insensitivity, which is not properly factoring in an important aspect of applicability of scope, such as timeframe, properly into the forecast; and thought type replacement, which is replacing a hard question in analysis with a similar question that's not equivalent but which is much easier to answer.
Researched qualities to strive for as a forecaster: cautious, humble, nondeterministic, actively open-minded, reflective, numerate, pragmatic, analytical, probabilistic, belief updaters, intuitive psychologists, growth mindset.
The authors then delve into a bit of another practical perspective on forecasting, which involves teams. Psychological traps for teams include the known phenomenon known as groupthink, which is that small cohesive groups tend to unconsciously develop shared illusions and norms that are often biased in favor of the group, which interfere with critical thinking regarding objective reality. There is also a tendency for members of the group to leave the hard work of critical thinking to others on the team instead of sharing this work optimally, which when combined with groupthink, leads the group towards tending to feel a sense of completion upon reaching a level of agreement. One idea to keep in mind for management of a group is that the group's collective thinking can be described as a product of the communication of the group itself and not the sum of the thinking of the individual members of a group.
There are some common perceived problems with forecasting, which receive attention in the book: the wrong side of maybe fallacy, which is the thinking that a forecast was bad because the forecast was greater than 50% but the event didn't occur, which can lead to forecasters not willing to be vulnerable with their forecasts; publishing forecasts for all to see, where research shows that public posting of forecasts, with one's name associated with the forecast, creates more open-mindedness and increased performance; and the fallacy that because many factors are unquantifiable due their real complexity, the use of numbers in forecasting is therefore not useful.
Some concepts that I took note of for further research from the book were: Bayesian-based application for belief updating, which is basically a mathematical way of comparing how powerful your past belief was relative to some specific new information, chaos theory, game theory, Monte Carlo methods, and systematic intake of news media. These are concepts that I was particularly interested in from the book based on my own interests and that I have continued to explore. This book was very valuable for cohesively bringing together the above concepts in the context of a compelling story, based on the DARPA research project which was compellingly won by the author's team as a product of the research that led to this groundbreaking book.
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Customers say
Customers find the book insightful and well-researched, with one noting how it helps structure everyday analysis. Moreover, the book offers excellent guidance on critical thinking and decision-making, and customers appreciate its approach to forecasting, with one highlighting its solid conclusions based on probability analysis. Additionally, the writing style receives positive feedback for its clarity and sound evidence, and customers consider it very useful for decision-makers. However, the readability receives mixed reviews, with some finding it easy to read while others find it frustrating.
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150 customers mention content, 139 positive, 11 negative
Great book not only for those who want to improve their prediction abilities, but to be a more critical and better thinker.Read more
An interesting and thought provoking book, but somewhat tedious and overlty repetitive. The ideas contained are truly lessons well learned....Read more
Great read for those who think about forecasting uncertainty although it will be tough for many to stick with itRead more
...want to detract you from reading this book because it truly was a good read....Read more
89 customers mention informative, 82 positive, 7 negative
really enjoyed this book. Informative and useful. At one point in my career this would have been very helpful to me....Read more
...First off, for the good information, the book talks a great deal about the scientific method, bias, etc, all of which I do completely agree to be...Read more
Well researched, well reasoned. A good follower to DK's Thinking, Fast and Slow. Blurbed by DK as well. Plus a good follow on website.Read more
Outstanding. Well written, insightful and pragmatic. Exactly what you expect from Tetlock.Read more
51 customers mention thought-provoking, 48 positive, 3 negative
Thought provoking and scientific yet easy to read....Read more
...nondeterministic, actively open-minded, reflective, numerate, pragmatic, analytical, probabilistic, belief updaters, intuitive psychologists,...Read more
A wonderful book. It describes an ambitious and important project, and contains many thought-provoking ideas. Plus it is very enjoyable to read.Read more
Excellent primer on thinking extremely critically....Read more
38 customers mention forecasting, 31 positive, 7 negative
A very insightful analysis of what is required to be a good forecaster.Read more
...Complex but logical and understandable. Practical and thoroughly enjoyable.Read more
...terms of critical thinking, international affairs, economics, and forecasting....Read more
...Everyone can use this book to make better predictions and use the tips outlined in this book....Read more
33 customers mention usefulness, 31 positive, 2 negative
Practical and timely advice in a world that is awash with spurious forecasting, which tend to be accepted as correct in most instances.Read more
Very useful for my company's work.Read more
really enjoyed this book. Informative and useful. At one point in my career this would have been very helpful to me....Read more
Excellent research on how to improve forecasting accuracy make it a useful read for those in a wide range of businesses....Read more
22 customers mention writing style, 18 positive, 4 negative
Outstanding. Well written, insightful and pragmatic. Exactly what you expect from Tetlock.Read more
The book was very well written....Read more
This is a very interesting book. I love how the author approaches the topic without falling in the over-technical stuff....Read more
Captivating writing style made a topic, usually shrouded in math and stats, really enjoyable....Read more
21 customers mention interesting concepts, 21 positive, 0 negative
Interesting concepts. Not much on how to do it. Mostly about the history of who could and who could not, and why.Read more
...The humility, curiosity, and constant doubt that many of these individuals share are just some of the surprising traits behind improved judgment.Read more
...INTELLIGENT AND KNOWLEDGEABLE WITH A “NEED FOR COGNITION”: Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges...Read more
...A bunch of interesting ideas, but I definetly would not call it "eye-opener". I put 3 stars....Read more
29 customers mention readability, 20 positive, 9 negative
Very interesting. Reads like a novel, not a math book. Author did an excellent job explain a complex issue in laymen's term.Read more
Thought provoking and scientific yet easy to read....Read more
...is far too verbose and much of the content either repetitive or not very interesting....Read more
...to make sure it sticks, but overall the book was well organized and clear....Read more
An interesting read on forecasting and how predictions are made
This is an interesting read on forecasting and how predictions are made. It examines a number of real world examples, outlining what went right, what went wrong, and how the process can be improved. There are a number of ways that one can improve the quality of their forecasts, ranging from knowing which questions to avoid, which data to try and focus on, and how to go back and re-evaluate your predictions. This book falls right in line with "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman, so fans of that book would find this one interesting as well. As least that's what I predict!
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Francisco Inacio BastosReviewed in Brazil on March 4, 2025
Uma obra simples, mas inspiradora
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase - Karl FungReviewed in the United Kingdom on August 23, 2017
Superforecasting is a skill that anyone can take up with practise
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Paulina LaraReviewed in Mexico on January 9, 2021
Gran libro acerca de la toma de decisiones
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase -
