Tracking deeper tropical moisture in the Gulf

June 12

We're monitoring the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days as a broad area of low pressure could form. Development odds are low at 10 percent. While it doesn't look very likely to become anything tropical, it could work with a cold front to spread some widespread moisture our way by the weekend into early next week.

June 11

Cristina has dissipated in the Pacific, but the remnant moisture is expected to move for the southwest Gulf over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center has given the remnants of this storm a 10% chance of re-forming into an Atlantic tropical system over the Bay of Campeche. That's the moisture that will bring Southeast Texas a high chance for heavy downpours and a risk of flash flooding Sunday through Tuesday.

June 10

We're monitoring the Bay of Campeche over the next few days as a broad area of low pressure could form. Development odds are low at 10 percent. While it doesn't look very likely to become anything tropical, it could work with a cold front to spread some widespread moisture our way by the weekend into early next week.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Cristina continues to swirl off the coast of El Salvador. Moisture from Cristina is expected to move into the Gulf over the weekend.

June 9

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet to start out the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. While no development is expected over the next 7 days, we are keeping an eye on a swatch of deep moisture in the Gulf later this week. It doesn't look very likely to become an official tropical system, however it could work with the jet stream to spread some added moisture our way by the weekend. For now we're holding rain chances over the weekend at 30%, but if deeper moisture spreads this way those numbers will have to climb.

June 8

No Tropical Development is expected over the next 7 days, but that doesn't mean we don't have areas of interest that could impact our weather. Of greatest significance is an area of deeper tropical moisture in the Bay of Campeche late this week. While it doesn't look very likely to become an official tropical system, it could work with the jet stream to spread some added moisture our way by the weekend. For now we're holding rain chances over the weekend at 30%, but if deeper moisture spreads this way those numbers will have to climb.

June 7

The key story in the Tropics is that, for now, no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days. That's always a win, but it doesn't mean we are turning a blind eye to the Caribbean and Gulf. Deep tropical moisture is gathering in the Southern Gulf this week, and it's not completely out of the question that we get our first tropical depression from it. Regardless of development, we aren't certain where exactly that deeper moisture will end up. If it heads this way, you could see our rain chances climbing into next weekend.

June 6

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet to start out the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. While no development is expected over the next 7 days, we are keeping an eye on a swatch of deep moisture in the Gulf later this upcoming week.

June 5

With Saharan dust in the deep tropics and high wind shear over the gulf and Caribbean, no tropics development is expected over the next 7 days in the Atlantic. Over in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Amanda continues to swirls in the middle of the eastern Pacific and poses no threat to land. There are also two potential areas of development off the west coast of Mexico to monitor over the next 7 days.

June 4

As expected, the first named storm of the Pacific Hurricane Season has formed. Tropical storm Amanda continues to swirl in the eastern Pacific Ocean with winds of 40 mph. The system is not expected to make landfall and is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression early next week. There's also two regions to watch for potential development off the west coast of Mexico. Meanwhile in the Atlantic, large plumes of Saharan dust keep the tropics quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days.

June 3

No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days across the Atlantic Basin, though we'll experience some heavy, tropical-like downpours at times this week and into the first weekend of June. Over in the Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression One has formed and will likely strengthen into a tropical storm later today. This would become the first named storm of the season in the Pacific. There is also another area off the west coast of Mexico to watch over the next 7 days.

June 2

No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days across the Atlantic Basin. That being said, there is an area of deep tropical moisture over the Gulf that we're keeping an eye on. While the chance for any development remains low, the added moisture streaming this way should increase our rain chances into the weekend. Over in the Pacific Ocean, there are two areas of potential development over the next 7 days with the first named storm of the season possibly developing by the end of the week.

June 1

The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season has officially begun! Thankfully, there is no tropical development expected over the next 7 days, so officially we're off to a "quiet" start. That being said, there is an area of deep tropical moisture over the Gulf that we're keeping an eye on. While the chance for any development remains low, the added moisture streaming this way should increase our rain chances through the work week.

NOAA is forecasting a 55% chance of having a below average storm total this year due an El Nino pattern which typically brings higher wind shear and fewer storms in the Caribbean and Gulf, but that doesn't mean we are in the clear. In fact there are many cases of "below average" storm total years bringing devastating hurricanes to the United States. It only takes one, so as always, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Now is a great time to make sure you have any hurricane preps and plans in order. It's never fun to think about hurricane season, but it's much easier to do now than it is when a storm is threatening.

May 26

The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook is here, and it hints at a potentially below-average season in terms of activity.

NOAA forecasters are predicting between eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes for the 2026 season. Each of these estimates is either at or slightly below the norm for each category.

So where do these numbers come from, and what could it mean for Texans? ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith has more analysis and information on what this could mean for Houston.

The overarching reason for the strong signal pointing to a less active Atlantic hurricane season is the emerging El Niño in the Pacific. At the end of May, water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are trending warmer than normal and could continue to warm into the summer months. This would signal that an El Niño has formed, and some long-range computer model guidance suggests this emerging El Niño could strengthen quickly and become a strong El Niño by later this year.

The importance of this phenomenon arriving at this time of year is that it can impact the jet stream over the United States, the Gulf, and the Caribbean. Typically, hurricane seasons with El Niño conditions have favored below-normal activity in the tropics due to wind shear. This is especially true for the Gulf and Caribbean. Wind shear can be a limiting factor in the formation and intensity of tropical storms.

So that's part of the equation. The other is to use historical references and comparisons with previous Atlantic hurricane seasons when similar conditions may have been present. These are called analog years. The analog years used to make the 2026 hurricane season prediction are 1997, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023. Each of these years had at least a moderate to strong El Niño during hurricane season, comparable to what could happen this year.

Of the five years, four had below-normal activity in the Atlantic during hurricane season, with some seasons even recording record-low activity. For example, 2006 was previously one of the least active seasons since the 1997 hurricane season. And 2015 was the third of three consecutive years with below-normal activity, too.

But the 2015 season should ring a bell to Houstonians, as that was also the season that brought Tropical Storm Bill to the region. Bill formed from a tropical wave that made it off the west coast of Africa and entered the Gulf. A passing trough then allowed for the system to organize, and in a little over a day, Bill made landfall along Matagorda Island on June 17, 2015, as a tropical storm. Bill brought a 3- to 4-foot storm surge to coastal areas, and its bands of heavy rain led to flash flooding across Southeast Texas. And yes, that was both during an El Niño year and what would end up being a "blow-normal" hurricane season.

The exception is the 2023 season, which is the fourth-most active on record in the Atlantic. The difference here, though, was that the El Niño was paired with record warm water that was already emerging in the deep tropics across the Atlantic. At this time, the waters in the deep tropics aren't warming as quickly as they were in 2023.