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ResearchBox #45 - 'The Psychology of Second Guesses'


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  Study S1 - Data.xlsx


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'DEAR READER' MESSAGE FROM THE AUTHORS

Data, Code, Materials, and Preregistrations for Gaertig & Simmons "The Psychology of Second Guesses: Implications for the Wisdom of the Inner Crowd" Management Science.

This version: December 08, 2020
(may be edited at any time)

BOX INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY FILES FOR
Gaertig C, Simmons JP. (2021) 'The Psychology of Second Guesses: Implications for the Wisdom of the Inner Crowd'. Management Science. V67(9):5921-5942.
doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3781

CITING THIS RESEARCHBOX
Gaertig, C., & Simmons, J. (2025). ResearchBox 45, 'The Psychology of Second Guesses', https://ResearchBox.org/45. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15030693

LICENSE FOR USE
All content posted to ResearchBox is under a CC By 4.0 License (all use is allowed as long as authorship of the content is attributed). When using content from ResearchBox please cite the original work, and provide a link to the URL for this box (https://researchbox.org/45).

BOX PUBLIC SINCE
December 09, 2020   

BOX CREATORS
Celia Gaertig (celia.gaertig@haas.berkeley.edu)
Joseph Simmons (jsimmo@upenn.edu)

ABSTRACT
Prior research suggests that averaging two guesses from the same person can improve quantitative judgments, a phenomenon known as the “wisdom of the inner crowd.” In this article, we find that this effect hinges on whether people explicitly decide in which direction their first guess had erred before making their second guess. In nine studies (N = 8,465), we found that asking people to explicitly indicate whether their first guess was too high or too low prior to making their second guess made people more likely to provide a second guess that was more extreme (in the same direction) than their first guess. As a consequence, the introduction of that “Too High/Too Low” question reduced (and sometimes eliminated or reversed) the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd effect for (the majority of) questions with non-extreme correct answers and increased the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd effect for questions with extreme correct answers. Our findings suggest that the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd effect is not inevitable, but rather that it depends on the processes people use to generate their second guesses.