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Feedback loops for forecasting funding, builders' programs, corporate forecasting || Forecasting newsletter #12/2025
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Prediction market gold rush, legal drama, AI forecasters on the horizon? || Forecasting newsletter #11/2025
What I feel curious about this month
Nov 13, 2025
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Nuño Sempere
10
6
3
National security professionals again found not to be calibrated, Swift Centre on UK winter blackout, adj.news' US Political Future Index …
Highlights
Oct 13, 2025
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Nuño Sempere
10
3
Opportunity markets, AI forecasters, Polymarket’s builders program || Forecasting newsletter #9/2025
Highlights
Sep 11, 2025
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Nuño Sempere
15
1
1
Timeline of all Manifold markets, Polymarket buys US exchange, deceitful ex-Senator lobbies CFTC | Forecasting newslettter #8/2025
Highlights
Aug 7, 2025
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Nuño Sempere
9
2
2
Humans still crush bots at forecasting, scribble-based forecasting, Kalshi reaches $2B valuation | Forecasting newslettter #7/2025
and possible big incoming tax hike coming to US-based bettors (a).
Jul 5, 2025
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Nuño Sempere
10
3
3
Forecasting newsletter #6/2025: Manifold structured debt, Manifest soon & ongoing Kalshi lawfare
and /r/forecasting subreddit resuscitated
Jun 4, 2025
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Nuño Sempere
12
2
Forecasting newsletter #5/2025: Southeast Asian gangs, adj.news, JurisTrade.
JurisTrade is a litigation marketplace, Southeast Asian gambling & cybercrime gangs look competent, adj.news platform improving, now has good API docs…
May 7, 2025
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Nuño Sempere
12
4
2
Forecasting newsletter #4/2025: Sloppy resolutions, AI in 2027
What feels most alive to me this past month: Kalshi and Polymarket misses, AI 2027
Apr 8, 2025
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Nuño Sempere
16
5
5
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