If one takes a step back from the Trump effect currently ruling all airwaves in the world by a mile, there are two unrelated events that catch the eye. Of course on a much lower Richter scale are the ‘momentous’ election processes taking place in the country. But they carry the same air of inevitability as power play batting in IPL these days. That is a pass.

One is a movie that is breaking viewership records more than handsomely. As a result, Dhurandhar is a movie that anyone who thinks he is someone has to review for better or worse. Despite being a movie buff for decades, one dare not go down that road. But one cannot but help saying that for once a Bollywood production is a case of art imitating life.

The portrayal of violence as an art form and not as a part of the narrative or pure ketchup kitsch is a first in Indian cinema. Its ready acceptance by the loving classes and masses is quite another first. And thereby for me, hangs a tale.

Like the coverage of matters of the State and of electoral battles in India these days are the bland newspaper/ media coverage of bodies being cut into pieces and stored in fridges, cement drums, paint drums, dumped into rivers and on honeymoon trips etc. And this is not the handiwork of hardened criminals.

Many are crimes of passion. Many are for money. But the underlying theme is that they are being perpetrated by people belonging to that loose category of population called the Indian middle class. A class of people exposed to the virtues of right and wrong and morals and considered the keepers of societal conscience

Such issues do not seem to disturb the high and mighty and therefore neither the mainstream media. Acceptance by pillars of society as just another law and order infringement indicates the presence of an emotion in most of us where we appear to be empathizing/ ignoring; actions by perpetrators of such crimes.

And this feeling is strengthened by the near absence of any sense of agitation/comment against the perpetrators on the very articulate social media platforms where people seem to fly off the handle at the slightest provocation these days.

The point is simple. There is a dominant feeling of rage racing through most of us at an existential level that wants us to fly off the handle at the perceived wrongs being perpetrated against us. It is evident in display of road rage, domestic violence, break ups, and above all in verbal violence that seems to be the gold standard for most of us.

In short we are all living at the edge and any stimulus is enough for us to cross old school societal limits. The intensity of the stimulus required depends on how close we are to the edge. Scary.

A crucial cog in this whole mosaic is verbal violence as an overarching emotion running across society and visible in all chat groups. Any slight disagreement in views leads to exchange of colorful language and threats of much more.

Gone are the quaint old days where the norm was to accept contradictions and take everyone along.  About two decades ago, inclusiveness was more the norm in society rather than the urge to exclude. How fast emotions have changed.

And that brings me to the other related event. The kicking out of a guy called Raghav Chadha from a senior position in the Aam Admi Party.

Now RC is not your regular Indian politician. His bio includes the London School of Economics, Delhi Univ, and is a Chartered Accountant. And of course marriage to a Parineeti Chopra, a National and Filmfare award winning film actress and a holder of triple honors degree in business, finance and economics from Manchester Business School.

Historically there was King Edwards VIII who abdicated his throne of England in 1936 to marry an American divorcee who did not meet the approval of the govt of England or the Church.

RC‘s exit is not on such a grandiose scale of course. In his case his approach to politics took on a much gentler hue after his marriage. It was no longer the street fighting and confrontational in your face approach, adopted by the AAP for sometime after run-in with the Central govt during their tenure of office in Delhi.

He started highlighting issues like Gig worker protection, consumer protection at airports, telecom and data rights of consumers, financial relief for consumers in maintaining minimum bank balance, food safety and labeling, paternity leave, better menstrual hygiene access in schools, joint tax returns for working couples, urban congestion; to name a few.

AAP felt soft issues were being raised in the public domain. The image of AAP as a party of the masses was taking a beating, notwithstanding the 45 crores splurged on house renovation by their leader not long ago.

Fact is these are core middle class issues that had not been touched upon in the public domain so far. Indian politics is confined to chest beating and freebies for the poor while denying them basic education and health. AAP had made an incremental difference there to be fair.

But that is where AAP so full of themselves always, are committing political hara kiri. In the last Delhi elections, vote share between the BJP and them was 45.56% to 43.57%. It is no secret that it was the middle class that drifted away from AAP because AAP had convinced themselves that it did not need attention.

So overriding is the negative emotion to exclude those who do not conform that even an IIT graduate leader cannot see that RC is tapping a constituency ignored by all political parties and can be electorally tapped.

        Funnily, nearly two decades ago we were using a more inclusive social approach. Today our approach has become exclusive or non inclusive to be more precise. If I have a different point of view/approach/manner, I am out. 

See the work done by Narsimha Rao, Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh with huge disparate coalitions. They took all views along even as Babri Masjid or Godhra happened.

It is the classic chicken or egg syndrome at play here. Did we change and so bring in leaders who only know, ’My way or the highway’? Or did the leaders we have today change us into their way of thinking?

Either way, can this model lead to societal growth? It does not appear so.

Hats off to the guy who wrote this phrase 4 centuries and more ago. It is the catch all sentiment dominating actions and dilemmas of those governing and those governed today.

Look at poor Trump. He is the original Hamlet-ian figure straddling the world stage today. He wants to make America great again and himself too in the bargain of course. But sadly knows not how.

He wants to pummel Iran but the costs are beginning to heat his coattails. He wants to go all the way but is afraid of body bags. The Iranians are turning out to be a real pain. Should he or should he not? So some back and forth ideas emerge that may not be clear even to him but are being rationalized by his ardent fans.

His tariff plans had to be diluted as China stared him down. Then the SC turned the heat on him. The bottom was knocked out of his whole economy revival plan.  Now he is not sure.

Desperate in search of greatness, Venezuela emerged. Again it was a non starter because oil companies refused to bite. So he went to Iran searching for greatness but now which way to go?

Look at the Gulf States and Saudi. They put all their eggs in the US basket and now they are running scared. They want  the US but not like this….

Look at the immigration problem. All white nations from US to Europe to Australia want to drive them out. But they need them too. Because immigrants are doing the grunt jobs and are driving the economy in significant ways.

But we want only good ones they say in exasperation. So Trump launches his gold card. It does not work. He says H1b visa is required. But his MAGA gang opposes as it does his plans in Iran. Caught in a cleft…

Now Germany breaks the line and wants Indians to work there as they are having a labor shortage. But the right wing guys will have none of it. And the German govt feels that is the only way to revive the economy. Get immigrant labor in. Indians are welcome but ground level hostilities against immigrants persist. The story is the same from US to Europe to Australia.

And right wing guys continue to benefit in polls. But the most right wing of them all is lost himself.

Look at China and their one child policy. Too much population was bothering them. So abort.  Since they were an authoritarian regime and pregnancies cannot be hidden, they went after pregnant women like there was no tomorrow. From 1979 to 2015 an estimated 400 million babies were aborted.

Hey but actually they did not want it like this. Young population is coming down.

Now they want women to produce. You can force abortions but making a couple produce is a next level exercise that even the most authoritarian guy cannot conceive (pun intended). So now they want robots as of yesterday.

Look at Putin who has forced his way into Ukraine supposedly because NATO was expanding eastwards and giving him sleepless nights. So while sorting out his 2000 km border with Ukraine who may or may not have got NATO  membership back then, he has definitely added 1400 km of  actual border with NATO thanks to Finland moving to NATO. Now what?

Go after Finland?

Look at our own journey. We crib about freebies being given to voters but have no qualms if little or no money is spent on education and health. So we are yet to decide if we have a demographic advantage or a demographic bomb staring at us.

We need the Americans and the Israelis and the Iranians and the Gulf countries and the Europeans and the Russians so we keep tripping now and then to go one way or the other in response to a situation.

But why blame our poor leaders. After all they are of the same confused stock that we are. So we crib about pollution but will not give up our own diesel guzzlers. Or use public transport for that matter.

 In short we will blame the West for their exploitation of poor countries but will not say a word about our own attitude to our own poor.

But that is about lifestyle and social responsibility. Look at our own personal lives where we want to connect but we want our own space. We want and crave for togetherness but we cannot adjust with one another. So we have live in relationships and pre nuptial agreements and separations and on and on it goes.

Simply put, if the world is in a bit of a mess today as it definitely is; it is sadly because we are in a bit of mess ourselves. Pulled in different directions, making contradictory choices, running around in circles…

We say something, we mean something else and we end up doing quite something else. Our internal and external wiring is hopelessly crossed.

It is not just God bless America, He needs to bless the whole world like never before…..

Not long ago we were hearing the oft repeated words, ‘Drill baby drill’ as Trump 2.0 hit the US. It was a plain cry for more oil, environment be damned.

A lot of initiatives notwithstanding, actual results so far have been lukewarm as industry has been reluctant because of low costs of oil in the market. That was till his latest adventure in Iran.

Thereafter the Venezuela adventure happened. The underlying theme was the same. Baby we get their oil. Again response from the industry was lukewarm as they weighed the uncertainty of investing in a country known for its policy flip flops.

Rodriguez stepped in to fill the vacuum created by Maduro but the US intervention has not exactly set the Pacific on fire because the US is not benefitting significantly.

Again the amazing part is the lack of awareness or backroom planning before the action. No one bothered to check with the industry if they would be inclined.

The Iranian intervention is part of the same thread. As recent American history has shown, the world is witnessing a repeat of the spectacle of the US going in six guns blazing without working out any scenarios of the fallout. And the script appears to be going awry as usual.

The limit of the benefits of using heavy technology and air power against a determined enemy who is prepared for such an occurrence have been played out earlier in Vietnam when the US bombed the daylights out of the country and yet beat a retreat. The Viet Cong like the Iranians now, resorted to horizontal escalation and the US was not prepared for it.

But that is the allure of new technology. It promises the moon. The sad part is that the limits of air power have been on display since the Second World War but then come new kings who are convinced they can do no wrong. And the military industrial complex promises that it will be a walk in the park….

And sadly these repeated adventures by different US Presidents indicate that at some level they represent the psyche of the people who elect them. Scary.

What Iran is doing is classic asymmetrical warfare that does not appear to have been factored in. With all the technological superiority claimed by the US and Israel, the drones are still flying as are rockets and missiles. Above all oil prices are on the way up. The Middle East is too vast an area to defend it appears.

The only two countries who are benefitting from this attack are ironically, the Russians and the Chinese.

The Russians were facing double digit inflation. The Ukrainians were claiming to have got back some 400 sq kms of territory. With oil at about 100 dollars a barrel, their economy will get a boost. Additionally, sanctions against the Russians to sell oil have been waived by the US itself.

The Chinese juggernaut continues unabated. Their National Congress has just laid out a blueprint to assimilate AI into their industry. They are aiming to become the world centre for robots. So while the US goes hunting for foes to gun down, the Chinese continue to concentrate on their economy. The scenario 5 years down the road for the world can be imagined.

Meanwhile elsewhere the US shed 92,000 jobs last month. Not long back they were adding more than a 100,000 jobs every month. The MAGA dream appears to be souring at the rate of knots.

His big thrust on immigration that was the only big plus working for him has run into rough weather with Minnesota. His change of guard at DHS shows he is alive to popular sentiment.

And that could be the bigger worry for Americans. The changing goalposts about aims of this war, the shifting timelines of closure, the contradictions in statements of what has been achieved, all point to awareness that all is not well behind all the bluster.

As the world economy threatens to unravel and Middle East allies lose more and more, the decibel level against this exercise will increase. The protests back home will gain momentum as prices move up. People hitting the streets as public anger mounts, is a distinct possibility.

 Midterm elections are looming large and polls are showing a marked slip in approval ratings of the President. If the situation continues to spiral at the present rate, the situation may call for drastic action.

It happened in India when another strong leader facing popular wrath imposed the Emergency to continue to hang onto power. Earlier US Presidents had a bureaucracy that offered sane advice and acted as a check and balance to some extent. Trump 2.0 has ensured that he has a room full of hangers on.

The Republican Party is still betting on him. It does appear that the President will have things his way and a rebellion in the party appears remote. If push comes to shove, it is a scenario that could threaten existential equations in the US.

Hopefully a figure like Pence will appear to prevent such an eventuality if it were to transpire.

The moral of the story is that leaders with strong personalities need someone in the room who can tell them that they are losing clothes. By the time they realize on their own they are on a one way street and there is no turning back.

And then the world suffers…

We graduated many a decade ago. Our college reunions have increased in frequency as the years have rolled on. And there are cogent reasons for that.

Such events were not regular on our calendar in the decade or two after graduation. The rat race was truly on and we were scared of being left behind.

In addition there was marriage, there were kids; in short there was too much going on in one’s life to think about spending a few days away from it all.

The phrase, work life balance had not entered the lexicon yet.

In our case the added burden was the absence of connectivity that social media offers today. The postal and telephone networks never really facilitated connecting with friends.

And then came the third decade after graduation. It was the harbinger of change and of reconnection.

For starters, positions in the rat race were emerging. Some of us were already accepting it, some were still fighting for an upscale and some had established clear leads.

Kids had grown up and were beginning to be on their own. The first signs of emerging space in the emotional bandwidth that controls each one of us was emerging.

When we parted after graduation, we were in our early twenties. There was wooly headed idealism and market dynamics had not affected our relations. Equations at college had been established more on lines of shared interests than on economic status and brand accessories.

Nehruvian socialism ensured that whatever the economic differences, limited availability of economic symbols and brands papered over such gaps.

The first reunions were not elaborate affairs but more in the nature of get together for a meal with spouse in tow.

It was apparent that the last three decades had taken a toll. Changes in persona were a given, buffetted as we were by winds of change that struck us as we moved on paths destiny had chosen for us.

The meal get togethers were more in the nature of sizing each other up and feeling our way forward. Old ties still beckoned but bonds were weakening in the face of our different paths.

The bonhomie was in place though a little forced as we and our partners felt their way forward.

The silver jubilee and ruby anniversary of graduation came and went with their associated celebrations and attendance was showing a definite spike.

It was clear that bonds were being rekindled as emotional bandwidth loosened up more and more space. Kids were moving on and our positions in the rat race were becoming more categorically clear. Dramatic breakthroughs were becoming more impossible.

In short we were becoming more comfortable in our skins.

2019 was a watershed moment in our reunion journey. We had secured our senior citizens status by a mile and emotional bandwidth was gradually giving way to an emotional vacuum of sorts.

We were no longer bonding as of old. We were in fact moving beyond. We were now looking forward to such events.

Spouses had started connecting with a heightened sense of confidence. There was so much to share as only they can and the size of the group was increasing. Stories were developing a continuity now.

But what was even more heartening was the fact that more and more guys of the batch were putting up their hand to stand up and be counted to organize such events. And the support across the board was awesome.

I am coming off one such event. We have had 5 reunions since 2019. Guys are now flying in from abroad to be able to participate. Decibel levels are astonishingly high.

And to think the starting point was 5 years of togetherness in college. A lot of water has flown under the bridge since. Views diverged, financial levels varied, responsibilities came in thick and fast and reduced, kids took up 70mm space in our lives which has now receded.

Politics has divided us. WA is a veritable war zone as divergent views slug it out, threatening a split every now and then.

And yet come a call for a reunion proposal, gloves are back on, politics is off the radar, bonhomie resurfaced as of old, spouses become more active in participation and we revert to our back bencher roles.

In short as the knees wobble more, Yeh Dil maange more…

The GDP figures are great (IMF however says our methodology of calculation deserves a C rating), inflation is low and consumption is ticking. We have signed a host of free trade agreement with places like Australia, New Zealand, UK, EU, Japan, ASEAN, EFTA, UAE, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the United States.

Govt backed capital expenditure has been steadily going up from about 4lakh crores in 2014 to 12 lakh crores today, fiscal deficit is under control; infra is improving all the time, ease of doing business rankings are going up, corporate taxes were cut in 2019, GST in 2025,…

And yet the Party is missing. Private investment is low, FDI has reduced dramatically, the stock market is easily not a great performer compared to Asian peers, foreign investors are pulling out, manufacturing that was 17% of GDP in 2014, is at 15% today in spite of chasing it in mission mode, tax revenue is growing at a slow rate of 7%; the list is exhausting.

Where are we going wrong or more accurately not going better like we should? The China plus one bus has passed us by and South East countries were easily the bigger beneficiaries. Our PLI scheme has not exactly set the Ganges on fire except for the Apple phone story. And while agriculture employs 46% of the workforce and its growth is projected to be at 3% in the latest budget, employment in agriculture continues to grow all the time even by the latest govt figures.

In the midst of this complex picture comes the flurry of FTAs that the govt has signed and is chasing. Our share of global exports is at 2% and can only go up. The FTAs should help. And then there is a Niti Ayog report on FTAs.

Released in January 2026, the report says trade deficit with FTA partners is rising sharply. While export in electronics has risen dramatically, there has been a sharp contraction in supplies to ASEAN, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. Exports to South Korea, Japan, Thailand and Bhutan witnessed modest gains.

Will FTAs with US and EU buck the trend?

But charity begins at home. Why is private investment not taking place? Demand or lack of it could be the obvious answer. The solution lies in stimulating demand. Here is the trick question.

45% of the labor force is in the rural economy. Wages in the rural economy have seen negative real growth in the 2019 to 2024 period. To increase demand we either shift labor force from rural to manufacturing or we modernize agriculture. We have not been able to do either. Where will demand increase from?

In the latest budget too it is status quo. The support to the agri sector is 12.6% of the total budget or 6.7 lakh crores. Food subsidy (which is actually consumer protection) in that is 2.27 lakh crores and fertilizer subsidy 1.7 lakh crore. We cannot have it both ways. We claim poverty at 3 to 5% then why such a huge food subsidy? But agriculture R&D gets the same 0.5%.

We have climate change, groundwater stress, declining soil quality and biodiversity loss but our investment in R&D continues as usual. An ICRIER research paper shows that every million spent on agri R&D can lift 328 people out of poverty in comparison to 26 if spent on fertilizer subsidy and the same logic holds for agri GDP.  But we are not budging.

Over 20% of our annual produce of fruit and vegetable valued at 1.5 Lakh crores, for example, is wasted due to poor cold chain infra, inadequate storage and weak market linkages. Money, labor, water loss plus release of green house gases are the result. But it is business as usual.

There is another option to look at low hanging fruit to boost employment. In 2014, Modi propagated the five Ts as the roadmap to the future of India, Trade, Technology, Tradition, Talent and Tourism. He somewhere lost track of the fifth.

As per WEF annual report on travel and tourism competitive index of 141 countries, we are globally:

(a) 17^th in natural resources.

(b) 10^th in cultural resource

(c) 8^th in heritage

(d) 8^th in price competitiveness

But 109^th in tourism infra, 106^th in health and hygiene, 129^th in safety and security, 139^th in environmental stability, 111^TH in HR and Labor and sadly 111^th in prioritization of travel and tourism. Our international arrivals stand at 1.45% of the world share.

We could have moved miles in the last 10 years in this direction. Infra improvements, skill development programs, and policy support could have been big steps in this direction. For example, we require 98 approvals to operate a hotel or resort in India vs 7 to 20 in other countries.

And then there is our demographic advantage. Labor shortages are being felt all over the globe. We have youth migrating illegally even from Gujarat. Remittances from Indians abroad net about 130 billion dollars a year. It is easily our best export.

And yet we have not moved to provide structure to this movement.

We could open inter govt dialogue to structure such demands and train/ skill our youth as per that requirement inclusive of culture and language sensitivities. We have received labor requests from Israel, Japan etc. The FTA with EU touches on manpower mobility. Should we not be getting ready for it? A general approach to skilling has not worked. Targeted skilling as per requirement could be the answer.

If we fix our demand, we could look at our regulatory cholesterol or framework to do business better.

As per a recent article in TOI, in India, a company must comply with 1536 acts, complete 6618 filings, and fulfill 69,233 compliances at all govt levels. A small pharma unit it states, spends 13 -17 lakhs per year to obey 998 compliances of which 49% carry a jail sentence.

Of course big brains in the govt must be working on all this. But missed opportunity and opportunity costs weigh heavy on the youth of today looking for jobs. Potentially we are a goldilocks economy but the potential has still to translate it seems…

We are going gaga at Carney showing Trump a thing or two about where he stands in the popularity scheme of things. Actually, the others were moving in the same direction in baby steps but he has articulated it the best and the sharpest.

After pillaging continents and ravaging the Earth for centuries, the white man has developed a funny disease. He always wants to claim the moral high ground to justify an action. It is selective of course because he sups with autocrat and the dictator as he continues to try to dominate the world in thought and deed.

The Dracula of old has become the wolf of Red Riding Hood in his new avatar.

But Karma is a bitch as the cliché goes. Comes a white man who is armed with a wrecking ball and he is turning on his own as he desperately seeks a winner to show he is the greatest. Now the whites are confused.

Frankly from a brown man’s perspective it is a bigger mafia don wanting to crush smaller mafia dons to enlarge his territory. All shades of black, not grey, if you pardon the unintended racist pun.

The world loves it, the way Carney stepped out of line to blast Trump the rogue American President. But his predecessor, Saint Biden had overseen a massacre in Gaza, had thrown Afghanis under the bus (even though not a single American soldier had been killed there since 2010) and supped with the Saudis after Khashoggi had been murdered.

And of course how the middle powers lined up with the super power to invade Iraq and facilitated the rise of ISIS. It is all recent history…..

To be fair to Carney he wistfully accepts it as much when he mentions how the world order was not great but under US hegemony, the middle powers too had a great time. Pardon me they are still having a great time, just that a bull has gone wild in their China shop (the world is really full of ‘pun-nish’ behavior these days).

In plain Indian speak; thanks to the bigger dada of the area, the smaller dadas were having a ball and after he has said you are on your own; they are feeling rudderless. The bigger question is, does it make them a lesser evil or is it only by comparison of the moment?

Remember the monies promised to the poor in the Paris accord of 2015 to help reduce carbon emission and cap temperature increase to 1.5degrees? That pipeline is still dry and a bone of contention but that has not stopped EU from planning to levy a carbon tax on imports.

Or the love affair we were having with the Canadians just a few months back on extremist actions on their soil against us. Similar rhetoric extends to the UK or Australia, take your pick.

The sad fact of the matter is it always was a jungle raj after WW2 but always clothed in fine sophistry. Now the sophistry has been given up thanks to a real estate builder who finds no point in wasting time and energy on such actions.

He makes a move, if he faces a pushback, he reassesses, if it is bad, he backs off. Full marks are due to the Indian govt for cutting off the sound bite and speaking only by actions in interaction with him. After all real estate is our sunrise sector, we are used to dealing with such guys.

Where it leads is still an open question and only time will tell. Like in the tariff example he may find us the easiest case to make an example of. Or facing increasing isolation on the world economic stage, he may decide to cozy up with a all is forgiven stance.

But the underlying message of this Carney outburst and this piece is simple. At a more philosophical level, power is the only variable in an equation. Whoever has it wields it, if one does not; eloquent speeches are the only resort.

 The real rule of law exists only if a bad action is so called out, irrespective of heft and overturned. That rarely happens in a national context let alone an international one. The urge to dominate and control is universal.

The actions against immigration in the US are a piece of the same. His economic theories are unraveling at a fast pace, his actions in the international arena are also leaving him footloose, the only tool to keep his flock together at home, is immigration.

The worst case scenario for immigrants will be if he gets more desperate in the near future as his political landscape heats up. He could really do an Idi Amin of Uganda fame (or ill fame) act. And if he does not change track on India, Indian expats better watch out.

Leaving on a national and philosophical note….

It appears he has scored three home runs in one hit, if one was to go by decibel levels of the MAGA gang.

For starters, Epstein is no longer on the front page. This has been a classic diversion timed to perfection. Who can blame the poor Democrats who have to respond? And the world is busy trying to figure out what his next agenda is going to be. Epstein seems so lame now.

Between 1898 and 1994, the US has intervened successfully in Latin America a full 41 times to change governments. So he is not in unchartered waters by any stretch. In fact he is playing quite the gentleman by not going for a regime change.  The only difference is he is not using a fig leaf like his predecessors of democracy etc. And the erstwhile embedded media of the Afghan and Iraq wars for a change is playing an analytical role.

 So actually this one outdoes all previous efforts. No change of govt is involved as he is most comfortable with dictators and autocrats. Machado can sing all the paeans possible for him, he will not bite. Rodriguez and the military can make merry, he just wants the oil.

The other home run he has scored is the attack on the Chinese. The Chinese are far from home and suddenly footloose in Latin America.

In Feb 2025 in the post, ‘The Familiar American rope trick’ I had written, ‘It is Jungle raj 2.0 as the world order appears to have collapsed. It is a first mover’s advantage and the rest is give and take. The only safeguard is having a sound defense as a deterrent‘.

Of course the Chinese would not have read this. They were too busy moving in like Shylocks into Latin America and Africa and where ever else money was needed.

Trump has proved that Chinese foray into Latin America amounts to little in the face of American might. It is quite a few billion dollars down the drain for them. He has, like Putin, proved the first mover advantage theory in today’s world order.

But maybe the most telling score is the one for his domestic audience. His tariffs onslaught was leading nowhere as too many exceptions were being made. After a painful governance 101,he has realized painfully that the world is too economically networked for him to threaten all economic ties without domestic fallout. Affordability was fast becoming an issue.

The MAGA movement was splitting as followers had started asking too many awkward questions. He was required to move fast. Above all he has this leaving a legacy behind hang up. The Peace prize turned out to be a mirage. Course correction was required. How to make MAGA in a hurry is the issue.

He has flipped the narrative. Now he is going all in as they say. And he is enjoying it at the moment. The world is scared to death about his next action. Greenland will happen sooner than later according to his camp. His mimicry of Macron shows how seriously he takes European leaders.

 Modi has got more respect from him even if grudgingly.

The problem however is that tactical victories with short time vision seldom stand the test of time. All these actions at colonizing have a desperate air about them and little success to show.

What Putin and Trump and Trump’s predecessors keep on ignoring is the aspect of nationalism that is more strongly defined in modern times. So victories that appear facile soon become quicksand. Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine and now maybe Venezuela…

A straw in the wind is that the govt in Venezuela has started releasing political prisoners. The aim appears to be to unite the country. If the country unites and covert/overt resistance surfaces; the next American step will have to be American boots on the ground. History will start repeating sooner than we think.

And for all his bluster, oil companies are not exactly falling over each other to enter Venezuela. In fact his ‘drill baby drill’ war cry last year after election has actually resulted in reduced number of active rigs in the US. Market conditions of soft oil prices do not encourage drilling for oil.

And Exxon has categorically said Venezuela is a no go. Another so called victory is threatening to turn into a disaster. Will victory laps again give way to panic? Can he afford opening another front? Bluster on Greenland is being matched with bluster by the Danes for now.

Sadly for all the histrionics on display, it looks like a Presidency that is running out of steam in the first year of its tenure. His insecurities at losing the midterm elections and being impeached indicate the thin ice he knows he stands on. None of his moves has borne fruit. He is desperately looking for a big hit and Venezuela appeared a good bet.

ICE is going off the rails and Minneapolis is a symptom, tariffs are being scaled down on a case to case basis as they affect local prices, China is still ruling the roost, manufacturing is not picking up in spite of grandiose announcements, farmers are not thrilled at reducing exports vis a vis 2024 and on and on it goes….

Democrats may actually win by doing nothing. Maybe that is why they silently wait for more self goals…

In the recent past two glaring regulatory failures scored big headlines across the country. One is the DGCA and the Indigo fiasco and the second was the Drug controller and the cough syrup scandal in Madhya Pradesh.

The Indigo fiasco did not cost lives but garnered more headlines than the cough syrup scandal that cost the lives of at least 25 children and involved a doctor husband and pharmacy running wife. The meltdown in Indigo of course caused havoc for the travelling crowds.

Cough syrup was at the heart of another scam in UP. There was massive illegal trade and black marketing of codeine, opioid based cough syrups. It was a 704 crore scam.

Sadly these are mere symptoms of a deeper malaise that runs through our national fabric. We are just not able to regulate.

Oxford dictionary defines the word as: ’to control something by using laws or rules. Society through its reps sets up the rules and a regulator adjudicates to ensure they are obeyed in letter and spirit. For effective regulation, the regulator should be fair and above reproach and appear to be so.

Now let us take a step back and see in which areas regulation is working at desired levels in our society.

At the top of the rung is our judiciary that regulates the interpretation of the Constitution and the laws implemented by the Parliament. That includes criminal and civil issues in its ambit.

We are in the middle of the Aravalli row where a November judgment on a decades old issue of what constitutes a hill is being revisited by the SC in December of the same year.

It is easy to criticize the institution but forgive the men who man it as they fight to make sense of this clash of 21^st century sensibilities of environment with a 19^th century mindset, exploitative State machinery that is still searching for a magic development route.

And the sad part is that the State listens only when there is a hue and cry with people hitting the streets or even the well regulated media cries foul.

You see we are still looking for an industrial manufacturing revolution that has always promised to be just around the corner but….

Worry not because this is just the tip of the iceberg. There has been a flurry of judgments in the recent past where rapists, murderers and the like have been let off or given a smooth ride thanks to inefficient police work. This pattern is led by the courts letting off the prime accused in the Nithari killings that rocked Noida nearly two decades ago.

16 human skulls were discovered in 2006 in Noida. Obviously the SC and the State are least concerned as to who killed these people if not the men arrested. Justice has been served.

The frightening conclusion is that police work can be compromised to facilitate a convenient judgment and then the crime can be archived forever. So we have another strike for poor regulation, this time for law and order. It is an everyday story for the ordinary citizen.

Then we have the EC conducting a special revision at such breakneck speed that guys involved are unable to handle the pressure and deaths are occurring due to suicides and work pressure. Whatever be the merits of the exercise, human lives do not seem to be important, such is the intensity of the exercise.

Air, water, food, pharma, you name it, there are gaping holes in our regulatory mechanisms and the best part is, life goes on as usual.

This is the trend across most regulatory mechanisms of the State. Here are clippings of some recent mentions in the newspapers of such transgressions.

The State has a major role to play in this chaos. Over 50% of the cases pending in courts have the govt, state and Centre as a litigant. There are over 200 vacancies in 15 tribunals set up by the Centre for assisting courts to fast track resolution of disputes. The bottom line is that we have a big issue on our hands. We just are not able to regulate.

It does appear that the only pillar of society well regulated is the media. So when they take up an issue people who matter sit up and take notice.

And the interesting part is that we do not seem to care. ‘We are loving it’ as the ad puts it. This chaos gives us the opportunity to use our networking skills to get away, literally and metaphorically, with murder.  Nothing is right and nothing is final, not even the SC.

Show me the man and I will show you the law is the operative cliché.

Outsourcing regulation may have appeared to be a great idea. The govt tried it with SEBI, the stock exchange regulator and landed itself into a controversy with the honcho’s past financial dealings and her man management. So back to the bureaucrats it went.

Regulation is a basic tenet that we are going wrong in. If we do not get this part of our act together, we will perennially be going two steps forward, one step back. That is where we are at present, let us hope that is not where we stay.

Organized religion excels in mandating ritual as a means to instill a sense of discipline in the life of the follower in his spiritual journey. The journey is to make a follower a better person, as only the very best reach communion with God.

 We need God to make sense of the chaos around us and we need the theory of karma to bring an order to our daily lives. But the imperatives of daily life take us through twisted paths testing our faiths and beliefs all the time. A ritual thus becomes an important tool to reorient our direction.

It is a difficult line to tread but who says following the steps to salvation is easy. In all organized religions, a ritual is important and needs to be taken seriously. But a ritual is not the message. Initially, being a better person as per a code of absolute ethics was the message.

Every religion accepts by and large the same absolute code of ethics. Not to kill, lie, steal; to honor human dignity and rights, treat others as you would like to be treated etc.

Then somewhere along the way the ritual became the message.

 Codified religions like Christianity and Islam have a well laid out path of rituals that chart a follower’s route during life and on death. Where it leads a follower in the afterlife of course is quite another story that cannot be documented. Effort and result are never correlated in religion; faith is the guiding light.

The next logical step follows. For a ritual to deliver promised gains it needs to be performed with faith and as per laid down guidelines. For that a guide is a must since the believer cannot perform a ritual with the exactness required.

Enter the pastor, the Maulvi or the pandit who are well versed in the ritual and in the message of the religion. They then become the chosen men of God.

Hinduism has the most elaborate rituals of the three. For starters it is the oldest religion. Secondly it is not a codified religion, in that practices are not mandated in a book. They are purported to have evolved over time.

Excessive ritualism has led to reform efforts. Raja Ram Mohan Roy, Swami Dayanand were such individuals who propagated reform. Sikhism, Jain and Buddhist thought were also borne out of efforts at reform. Traditionalists, as is the norm protested. The protest continues till date. Reform movements within the religion however have sputtered.

 Rituals after death form an important part of any religion as they all emphasize the journey after death being related to proximity to God. And all of them know such claims are not verifiable. But religion is about faith and belief; it cannot be about verifiable truths.

In a nutshell it is important for a descendant of the deceased to undergo all rituals related to the deceased to guarantee the deceased a comfortable and peaceful time in his afterlife.

But then no other religion has afterlife mapped out like we do. Rebirth is destined, it can be in any form known to mankind and only good karma can assure a higher form of life or better still, Moksha, that is eternal salvation but that is only for the really noble souls.

Rituals after death are important to ensure a smooth journey as the soul wanders and subsequently, it’s looking after; as it takes the shape of another being. And the rituals need to be followed thereafter, year after year.

The good thing about the strong ritualization is that there is little time to grieve the departed human. There is so much to do, to organize; to ensure there is no false step that immediate trauma is swept away in a flurry of rituals. Grief then becomes a matter of trickling memories as they pop up from time to time and is then such a personal thing after visitors have departed.

The other good thing is that not being codified as a religion, nothing is mandated. Faith shrivels as per means available in the crucible of financial imperatives. Market forces kick in and shortcuts to rituals emerge, marketed by the same men of God.

In the days gone by, popular folklore had it that a man borrowed only twice in his life, one when his daughter was getting married and again when his elder passed away. So significant has been ritualization in our traditions.

And maybe the reason why reform movements have sparkled for some time and petered out is that the short cuts to rituals are emphasized with the same conviction as the original. They therefore carry weight with those affected; maybe because convenience of implementation also beckons. And a quick buck saved or earned, all around always helps.

So we continue as we are, so democratic is our religion, so diffused that it actually makes little sense to hope it should be otherwise. Do as much as you can as long as you are okay with yourself.

And really isn’t that what religion is all about at its core? Being at peace with yourself……and stifling the doubts if they arise….

Democracy is a unique way of governance because of the checks and balances that are built into its working mechanisms.

Among other essential ingredients, a genuine democracy requires a healthy opposition, calling out the missteps in the governance cycle, pressuring the govt to undertake course corrections. An independent media and judiciary are the other two ingredients.

That is cliché stuff.

Reality bites dictate that every political party in power works hard for unrestricted freedom in power. A constant see saw battle ensues; it is normal for a democracy. A weak opposition facilitates compromise of judiciary and the media.

Historically speaking, our present cycle of dominance by the BJP is not one of a kind. The Congress has been there done that, with the help of a benign EC till that freak Seshan raised the bar, God bless him. Lavasa could have been a repeat but he showed his hand a little too early so it is an ‘if and but of history’ story.

And if sensitive folk reading this are still despairing at the current state of our democracy, see how the Republicans and Trump rubbished the 2020 election results and are still at work trying to muzzle the media and redraw districts to maximize seats.

Another cliché doing the rounds is the need for the opposition to project an alternative vision of governance to become more relevant. Sad fact of the matter is that no one has a vision of what better shape society can be given from the mess we are in. It is a global phenomenon.

The reason is simple. Big money is funding a technology drive that is pushing the human more and more out of the productive cycle. And democracies need big money come election time. So no one can stop big money from doing what they want to.

Democratic society the world over is more like the Industrial revolution days of the 19^th century. There are the toiling masses, the nobility and the royalty. The only difference is that the minima bar is set at different levels in different societies. Countries that looted the world as colonial powers are now well placed to give their citizens higher minima.

 The big difference between the 19^th century and now is that democracy and universal suffrage requires the plebs to be sold a compelling narrative and molly cuddled come election time.

Political parties are having to rely on the bogey of immigration or religion or freebies or a combination of these to win elections. No party is talking of alternate visions.

Elections these days can only be won not by showing a better hand but by highlighting the wrongs of the incumbent. If you choose a wrong narrative to highlight, it’s your funeral. The incumbent has an advantage of doling out more freebies than the empty promises of the opposition.

Like it or not, pan India, Rahul Gandhi is the face of the opposition today. He has put in the hard yards, traversed the length and breadth of the country on foot and has been the central figure in leading the opposition charge in every election since 2014, with or without coalition partners.

The results have been less than flattering. The reasons are not too hard to find.

To begin with, he comes from an elite western educated background. The Indian political landscape has not been a happy hunting ground for such entities. Congress has quite a few who never got their feet dirty in electoral politics, staying the course in Rajya Sabha. Chidambram, Sibal, Swamy in and out of BJP, Moitra in TMC, Tharoor ….

The last named are Lok Sabha members but their sense of entitlement coming from a supposed superior education makes them impatient. They tend to parachute in and out of issues, never staying the course. As a result they never belong. They are at best outsiders being suffered by the rank and file of the party.

And above all these guys have varied interests and are not 24 by 7 politicians. RG’s ill famed foreign trips are part of the same syndrome. So credibility takes a hit.The other dynasts like Akhilesh and Tejashwi are more hands on but are unable to let go of their legacies.

Thrust into the pole position of a national party, RG has veered to a set of advisers who speak the same language but have never got their feet dirtied in grass root politics. As a consequence, he is hearing what he wants to hear as these honchos jockey to stay close to him.

The second issue arises from the first. Not being rooted in politics, political instincts are not strong. Rajiv Gandhi also suffered from the same malaise. The Shah Bano case and unlocking the Ram Mandir complex are two huge examples of this. His Bofors fiasco is of course above all.

It was this lack of backing political instincts that led to marginalization of young dynamos like Sachin Pilot and Scindia in favor of tired faces like Ghelot and Kamal Nath. The mistakes continue like letting Nitish Kumar go, letting INDIA block drift…

In comparison see the political carcasses Modi and Amit Shah have left behind in the last 10 years….Advani, MM Joshi, Dhankar, Venkata Naidu, Jayant Sinha….

Another reason has been choosing the wrong narrative. In the 2019 election, he went all in with Modi being a thief for modifying the Rafale deal. Now it is the ‘vote chori’ campaign. Neither got much traction. The opposition got much more traction during the 2024 elections when they concentrated on basic bread and butter issues.

See how Mamdani beat the billionaires in NY. The plebs wanted to hear bread and butter issues not talk of free enterprise. That is why Modi, who was so vocal  in deriding MNREGA is still running the program and also giving free ration to 80 crore people. That is political instinct.

But that may have seemed to be too mundane for RG. It is not as if the last 10 years of BJP governance has been a great period. Rural wages have stagnated, urban unemployment is high and rural workforce is more than the workforce elsewhere combined. And above all, in spite of the most concerted efforts, manufacturing has not taken off. The govt can be effectively targeted.

Agriculture is still our Achilles heel. An alternative blueprint besides the usual MSP promises can be worked out. Urban city revival is begging for a new look. The Congress has the resources to think about all this.

But can they get their house in order? It does look as if like our cricketers they are not interested in long haul test matches and building innings. Translate that into organization building at the local level. Only T20 type, six or miss affairs for them with breaks in between…..